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Page|1|PHILLIPSECURITIESRESEARCH(SINGAPORE)MCI(P)006/10/2019Ref.
No.
:SG2020_0031ECWorldREITProtectedbymasterleasesSINGAPORE|REALESTATE(REIT)|FY19RESULTS4Q19andFY19NPIandDPUwereinlinewithourforecastHighincomevisibilityduetoportfoliooccupancyof99.
9%andWALEof4.
1yearsFY19DPUdown2.
1%YoY;accretionfromFuzhouE-commerceacquisitionwipedoutduetoFXandtiminglagbetweendrawdownofloansandacquisitionMaintainBUYwithalowerTPofS$0.
83(prevS$0.
84).
OurTPtranslatestoaFY20eDPUyieldof8.
7%ThePositives+Solidportfoliotoweatherturbulence.
Highincomevisibilityduetoportfoliooccupancyof99.
9%,andWALEbyGRIof4.
1years.
Post-acquisitionofFuzhouE-Commerce,84.
4%ofFY20erevenueissecuredthrough4masterleasestotheSponsor,withbuild-inrentalescalationsranging1%to3%.
HengdeLogistics,thespecialisedlogisticassetcustomizedforandleasedtoastate-ownedtobaccocompany,contributesc.
8%toNPI.
Thisbringsthepercentageof"stable"leasesto91%.
TheNegatives-AccretionfromtheacquisitionofFuzhouE-commercewipedout.
DPU-3.
8%/-2.
1%in4Q19/FY19duetoFXandhigherfinanceexpenseand5%retentionofdistributableincome(DI)in4Q19.
HigherfinanceexpensewasduetothetimingmismatchofdrawdownofloansandtheacquisitionofFuzhouE-Commerceandthehigherloanquantum.
AcquisitionfinancingforFuzhouE-commerce(completedon8August2019)wasdoneinconjunctionwiththerefinancingoftheIPOloans(28Juneand8August).
DPUwouldhavebeen6.
13centsif100%of4Q19DIwaspaidout,butthiswouldstillhavebeen0.
8%lowerthanFY18DPUof6.
18cents.
5%ofDIwasretainedforworkingcapitalpurposedandunforeseencircumstances.
OutlookThemanagementreceivednotificationofnon-renewalof24,929sqmofspaceonaleaseexpiringin2Q20atWuhanMeiluote.
Thisrepresents50%ofWuhanMeiluote'sNLAof48,695sqm.
Occupancyisexpectedtofallfrom97.
7%to46.
7%.
Thisassetcontributes1.
6%togrossrentalincome(GRI)andwillnotaffectDPUmaterially.
Mutedleasingdemandisexpectedinthenearterm.
15.
7%ofleasesbyGRIisupforrenewalinFY20.
OneoftheleasesexpiringisforspaceatHengdeLogisticswhichisleasedouttoastate-ownedtobaccocompanyatbelow-marketrentals.
Withthecountryinastateofflux,broughtonbytheCovid-19outbreak,managementisguidingforflattishrentalreversionsonleasesexpiringinFY20.
5March2020Page|2|PHILLIPSECURITIESRESEARCH(SINGAPORE)ECWORLDREITRESULTSKeyrisktoourvaluationremainstheweakeningoftheRMB.
Themanagerhasreviseditshedgingstrategyfromaputspreadtoaplainvanillacalloption.
TheprevioushedgingstrategyemployedwouldonlyprotectECWifFXfluctuatedwithinacollar-exchangemovementsoutsideofthecollarwouldmeanthatECWwouldhavetotaketheprevailingmarketrate.
Theamendedstrategyeffectivelylocksinaworst-caseexchangerate.
MaintainBUYwithlowerTPofS$0.
83(prev.
S$0.
84).
WemaintainourBUYcallwithamarginallylowerTPofS$0.
83.
ThistranslatestoaFY20e/FY21eDPUyieldof8.
9%/9.
3%.
Page|3|PHILLIPSECURITIESRESEARCH(SINGAPORE)ECWORLDREITRESULTSPage|4|PHILLIPSECURITIESRESEARCH(SINGAPORE)ECWORLDREITRESULTSPage|5|PHILLIPSECURITIESRESEARCH(SINGAPORE)ECWORLDREITRESULTSHeadofResearchResearchAdminPaulChew–paulchewkl@phillip.
com.
sgSitiNursyazwina-syazwina@phillip.
com.
sgProperty|REITsSmall-MidCapBanking&Financials|HealthcareNatalieOng-natalieongpf@phillip.
com.
sgTanJieHui-tanjh@phillip.
com.
sgTayWeeKuang-taywk@phillip.
com.
sgTechnicalAnalystChina/HKEquityCreditAnalyst(Bonds)ChuaWeiRen–chuawr@phillip.
com.
sgZhengJieyuan–zhengjy@phillip.
com.
sgTimothyAng–timothyang@phillip.
com.
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poems.
com.
sgMALAYSIAPhillipCapitalManagementSdnBhdB-3-6BlockBLevel3MeganAvenueII,No.
12,JalanYapKwanSeng,50450KualaLumpurTel+60321628841Fax+60321665099Website:www.
poems.
com.
myHONGKONGPhillipSecurities(HK)Ltd11/FUnitedCentre95QueenswayHongKongTel+85222776600Fax+85228685307Websites:www.
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com.
hkJAPANPhillipSecuritiesJapan,Ltd.
4-2NihonbashiKabuto-choChuo-ku,Tokyo103-0026Tel+81-336662101Fax+81-336666090Website:www.
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jpINDONESIAPTPhillipSecuritiesIndonesiaANZTowerLevel23B,JlJendSudirmanKav33AJakarta10220–IndonesiaTel+62-2157900800Fax+62-2157900809Website:www.
phillip.
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idCHINAPhillipFinancialAdvisory(Shanghai)CoLtdNo550YanAnEastRoad,OceanTowerUnit2318,Postalcode200001Tel+86-2151699200Fax+86-2163512940Website:www.
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cnTHAILANDPhillipSecurities(Thailand)PublicCo.
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thFRANCEKing&ShaxsonCapitalLimited3rdFloor,35RuedelaBienfaisance75008ParisFranceTel+33-145633100Fax+33-145636017Website:www.
kingandshaxson.
comUNITEDKINGDOMKing&ShaxsonCapitalLimited6thFloor,CandlewickHouse,120CannonStreet,London,EC4N6ASTel+44-2074265950Fax+44-2076261757Website:www.
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comAUSTRALIAPhillipCapitalLimitedLevel10,330CollinsStreetMelbourne,Victoria3000,AustraliaTel+61-0386339803Fax+61-0386339899Website:www.
phillipcapital.
com.
auSRILANKAAshaPhillipSecuritiesLimitedNo.
60,5thLane,Colombo3,SriLankaTel:(94)112429100Fax:(94)112429199Website:www.
ashaphillip.
netINDIAPhillipCapital(India)PrivateLimitedNo.
1,18thFloor,UrmiEstate95,GanpatraoKadamMargLowerParelWest,Mumbai400-013Maharashtra,IndiaTel:+91-22-23002999/Fax:+91-22-23002969Website:www.
phillipcapital.
inTURKEYPhillipCapitalMenkulDegerlerDr.
CemilBengüCad.
HakIsMerkeziNo.
2Kat.
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com.
trDUBAIPhillipFuturesDMCCMemberoftheDubaiGoldandCommoditiesExchange(DGCX)UnitNo601,PlotNo58,WhiteCrownBldg,SheikhZayedRoad,P.
O.
Box212291Dubai-UAETel:+971-4-3325052/Fax:+971-4-3328895CAMBODIAPhillipBankPlcGroundFloorofB-OfficeCentre,#61-64,NorodomBlvdCornerStreet306,SangkatBoeungKengKang1,KhanChamkamorn,PhnomPenh,CambodiaTel:855(0)77966151/855(0)16200769Website:www.
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