新浪xweibo

GTJAResearch国泰君安研究SinaCorporation新浪(SINAUS)CompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of8CompanyReport:SinaCorporation(SINAUS)DundasDeng邓京晶公司报告:新浪(SINAUS)+8675523976680dengjingjing@gtjas.
com27June2012SlowrecoveryinADrevenues,butweibomonetizationpotentialistoberevealedinFY13-14广告收入恢复缓慢,但微博货币化潜力将于13-14财年显现Sina's1Q12revenuefromadvertisingwasaffectedbyuncertainmacroconditions,butoutlookforthecomingquarterswillbehelpedbyincreasingADspendingfortheOlympicGamesandmonetizationofweibo.
SINA's1Q12advertisingrevenuegrew8.
6%YoYtoUSD78.
5millionandweiborelatedcostsamountedtoapproximatelyUSD36.
0million.
SINA'sguidancefor2Q12isbetweenUSD126.
0and129.
0million.
ThelowerendisslightlyaboveourestimateofUSD124.
8millionasweexpecttherecoveryofonlineadvertisingbusinesswillbeslowerthanexpected.
WeexpectaslowstartforSINA'smonetizationonweibosincecurrently,SINAhasstartedtotrailondisplayadsandchargingmembershipfeesforVIPs.
WhenweibograduallybecomesSINA'snewgrowthdriverandthelossesfrominvestmentimpairmentsnarrowdown,theCompanystillhaspotentialtorecordprofitagaininFY13-FY14.
RevisedownTPfromUSD96.
0toUSD70.
0accordingtoourDCFvaluation,andalsobecausethelimitedcontributionfromweibomonetizationandtherecoveryinonlineadvertisingmarketmaybeslowerthanwhatthemarketexpects.
WeupgradeSINA'sinvestmentratingto"Accumulate"asweexpectitsoperatingmargintobottomoutinFY12andthattheCompanywillbeabletorecordprofitagaininFY13.
Risks:Useractivenessmayaffectweibomonetization;largerthanexpectedlossesfrominvestmentimpairments.
新浪的12年1季度广告营收受到不确定宏观因素的影响,但之后几个季度的展望将能受到奥运会相关广告支出和微博货币化的提振.
新浪1季度的广告收入同比增8.
6%至7,850万美金,微博相关的费用达到了3,600万美金.
新浪预计2季度收入介于1.
26至1.
29亿美元之间.
区间底部较我们预测1.
248亿美金略低,因我们预计在线广告业务的恢复较预期慢.
我们预计新浪微博货币化有一个缓慢的开局,目前新浪开始试运营展示类广告业务并开始收取VIP的会员费.
当微博逐渐成为新浪的新增长动力、且来自投资减值的损失缩窄时,公司仍可能在13-14财年再次录得净利润.
因来自微博货币化的贡献有限和在线广告市场恢复可能慢于市场预期,同时参考DCF估值,我们将96.
0美金的的目标价调低至70.
0美金.
但我们预期新浪的营运利润率在12年见底而公司能在13财年开始录得净利,我们升公司投资评级至收集.
风险:用户活跃度可能影响微博货币化进程;大于预期的投资减值损失.
Rating:AccumulateUpgraded评级:收集(上调)12MTP目标价:US$70.
00Revisedfrom原目标价:US$96.
00Shareprice股价:US$52.
700Stockperformance股价表现(60.
0)(50.
0)(40.
0)(30.
0)(20.
0)(10.
0)0.
010.
020.
030.
040.
0Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12%ofreturnNasdaqCompositeIndexSINAChangeinSharePrice股价变动1M1个月3M3个月1Y1年Abs.
%绝对变动%(2.
2)(20.
8)(41.
7)Rel.
%toCCMPindex相对纳指变动%(2.
4)(11.
8)(48.
8)Avg.
shareprice(US$)平均股价(美元)53.
458.
575.
6Source:Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanInternational.
YearEnd年结Turnover收入NetProfit股东净利EPS每股净利EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS每股股息Yield股息率ROE净资产收益率12/31(US$m)(US$m)(US)(%)(x)(US$)(x)(US$2010A403(19)(0.
312)n.
a.
n.
a.
20.
2452.
60.
0000.
0(1.
6)2011A483(302)(4.
639)n.
a.
n.
a.
16.
2113.
30.
0000.
0(26.
3)2012F578(26)(0.
388)n.
a.
n.
a.
16.
1643.
30.
0000.
0(2.
4)2013F691110.
160n.
a.
328.
416.
4303.
20.
0000.
01.
02014F812650.
879447.
560.
017.
5403.
00.
0000.
05.
3Sharesinissue(m)总股数(m)65.
9Majorshareholder大股东TROWEPRICE8.
74%Marketcap.
(US$m)市值(US$m)3,472.
9Freefloat(%)自由流通比率(%)91.
33monthaveragevol.
3个月平均成交股数('000)3,185.
2FY12Netgearing净负债/股东资金(%)Netcash52Weekshigh/low(US$)52周高/低125.
370/46.
860FY11-14PEG(x)n.
a.
Source︰theCompany,GuotaiJunanInternational.
27June201227SinaCorporation(SINAUS)CompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of81Q12revenuefromadvertisingwasnegativelyaffectedbyuncertainmacroconditions,butoutlookforthecomingquarterswillbehelpedbyincreasingADspendingfortheOlympicGamesandmonetizationofweibo.
SINA's1Q12advertisingrevenuegrew8.
6%YoYanddecreased24.
2%QoQtoUSD78.
5million.
TheCompany'stotaloperatingexpensesincreased60.
6%YoY,whichmainlyresultedfromthesharpincreaseof143.
8%YoYinproductdevelopmenttoUSD25.
0millionin1Q12.
SINA'smanagementclaimsthattheweiborelatedcosts,whichincludedstaffcosts,infrastructureandmarketingrelatedcosts,amountedtoapproximatelyUSD36.
0millionandthetotalcostswillbeatsimilarlevelcomparedtoFY11.
ItsNon-GAAPnetrevenuerose6.
3%YoYtoUSD101.
5million,andSINA'sguidancefor2Q12isbetweenUSD126.
0and129.
0million,representinga10-13%YoYgrowth.
ThelowerendisslightlyaboveourestimateofUSD124.
8millionasweexpecttherecoveryofonlineadvertisingbusinesswillberelativelyslowerthanexpected.
SINA'sdependencyonadvertisingrevenuecontinuestorise.
Advertisingrevenueconstituted76.
4%ofSINA'sFY11totalrevenue,ascomparedto63.
6%inFY09.
ThepercentagedropoftheshareofrevenuefromMVAScontinuedinFY11to17.
3%from33.
3%inFY09andsuchtrendwillcontinue.
Weexpectadvertisingrevenuewillaccountfor77.
2%and79.
6%oftotalrevenueinFY12andFY13.
Figure1:GrowthofregisteredaccountsofSINAweiboandactivatedaccountsofRenrenSource:TheCompany.
Aspartofitseffortsformonetizingweibo,SINAstarteditspaidVIPmembershipservicestoindividualusersrecently.
SINAwillchargeitsVIPmembersRMB10.
0/monthorRMB108.
0/yearforproviding15additionalvalueaddedservices.
Thekeyadditionalfeaturesincludes:specialweibodisplaytemplates,moreexposuretoweibopromotion,maximumlimitofweibofansof2,000,voiceweibomessagethroughphonecall,newweiboalertsviatextmessages,andmoresecurityfeatures.
Weassume1-3%ofthetotalweibousersmayupgradetoVIPmembershipbytheendofFY13andthecontributiontoSINA'srevenueisverylimited.
HowevertheenterpriseweiboaccountsarestillafreepromotionalplatformforenterprisesandwillbeagreatassetforSINA'sfuturemonetization.
SINAreportedthatithad160,000enterpriseaccountsinmiddleMayandexpectsthenumbertoincreaseto300,000bytheendofthisyear.
SINAweiboiswidelyintegratedintopopularmobiledevices,anditsopenplatformwillenhanceitsplatformadvantages.
OnJune12th,AppleannouncedtwoofitskeyupgradesoniOS6andOSXMountainLion.
ItwasreportedbySINATechthatweiboapplicationwasseamlesslyintegratedintobothoftheseOStosharemessages,pictures,etc.
throughApple'swebbrowsers,photoapplicationandotherapplications.
ThisintegrationwillhelpSINAweibotoattractandmaintainitshigh-endcustomers.
Pleasekeepinmindofthemostimportantcharacteristicsofweiboare:1)Itisanonlinebroadcastingmedia;2)itlimitsthemessagesize;3)itgivestheaudiencetherighttofolloworun-followanyspecificweibo;4)thesourceofbroadcastingcouldbeanaturalperson,anycompaniesororganizations.
SINAstillhavehugeroomforimprovementsforitsweiboseriesofproductsandservices.
Inparticularly,oneoftheapplicationsofitsopenplatform,"Xweibo",providesvariouswaysforthirdpartydevelopersto:1)providethirdpartywebsitewithweibouserlogin,contentsharingandSNSplug-ins(Wei-linkage);2)createmobileappswithweibosupportandaccessthevaluableweibouserinformation,provideinteractiveservices/appsandSNSbasedcontentsharing.
Forexample,liveweibodiscussioningroupsisaneffectivewayoftext27June201227SinaCorporation(SINAUS)CompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of8broadcasting.
Wei-linkageisalreadyadoptedbyZOL.
com.
cn,tudou.
com,ku6.
com,CNTVandotherfamousChinesewebsites.
AlsoSINAandCNNICiscooperatingonrollingout"Weizhan",anauto-generatedinteractivewebpageservicebasedonweibosystemstopromoteSME'susage.
WearelargelypositiveonthemonetizationofSINAweiboinFY13andFY14duetopositiveoutlookforthedemandforweiboadvertisements.
SINA'smanagementnotedthatthe60%accessofweibowasfrommobileterminals,whichexceededthenumberofuserslogginginthroughPCterminals.
Theuniquefeatureoflimitingthemessagesizemakesweibomoresuitableformobileusers.
AccordingtoIABandHISScreenDigest,theglobalmarketsizeofmobileadvertisementreachedoverUSD5.
3billionin2011.
AsiaPacificconstituted36%ofthetotalandwastherankedasthetopregionformobileadvertisementspending,whichwashigherthanthoseinbothNorthAmericaandEurope.
Amongthethreecategoriesofmobileadvertising(mobilesearchads,mobiledisplayadsandtextads),mobilesearchadsaccountedforabout72%ofthetotalspendingonmobileadslastyearinAsiaPacificRegion.
SINAweibowillbeabletoincorporatesimilartypesofadvertisements,andalsoforadstobeembeddedinweibosearchresults.
SINAislikelytotakethetimetoexperimentwiththepracticalmodelforweiboadvertisementinFY12since2Q,butmonetizationpotentialremainsdespitetheexperimentationwithdifferentwaysofweibomonetization.
TimeisrequiredforSINAtoexplorevariousmonetizationmethods.
CurrentlySINAstartedatrialonweibodisplayads,whichismainlybasedonusers'interestgraphs.
SINAwillalsotrailoutsocialadsandproductssimilartoTwitter'sPromotedTweets.
WeexpectaslowstartforSINA'smonetizationonweiboandtheCompanyhaspotentialtorecordprofitagaininFY13-FY14.
Tencent'srevenuefromonlineadvertisingreachedRMB540.
1millionin1Q12,whichalreadysurpassedSINA'sRMB494.
8millioninthesameperiod.
ThisshowsthatTencentisleveragingitsstronguserbase,multi-SNSplatformsandotherbusinesssegmentstodriveitsonlineadvertisingbusiness,whichletitobtainahighergrowthratethanitsrivalswhoreliedonrelativelylesssourcesofrevenuegrowth.
AsattheendofMarch2012,thetotalregisteredaccountsforSINAweiboincreasedto324million.
Thedailyactiveusersaccountedfor9%ofthetotal.
Weexpecttheincreaseintotalnumberofregisteredaccountstoslowdowngraduallyin2012asthereal-nameverificationprocesscontinues.
SINA'slossesofUSD281.
5millioninFY11mainlycamefromtheUSD230.
3millionandUSD50.
9millionwritedownofitsequityinvestmentsinCRICandMCOXrespectively.
WhenweibograduallybecomesSINA'snewgrowthdriverandthelossesfrominvestmentimpairmentsnarrowdown,theCompanystillhaspotentialtorecordprofitagaininFY13-FY14.
Risksincluding:1)Ourtestingonvariousmobileappandopenplatformappsencounteredminorbugsanderrors.
WebelieveSINA'sself-developedandthirdpartysoftwareproductsrequiremoredebuggingandQAbeforeenteringthemarkettoensureoptimaluserexperience;2)TimeonSiteforweibo.
commonitoredbyalexa.
comshowedanapproximate12%QoQdecreaseintheestimateddailytimespentin2Q12,whichmayimplytheactivenessofuniqueweibouserscontinuetodropeveniftheregistereduseraccountsisstillincreasing;3)CashandcashequivalentcontinuestodropandtheCompanymayrequireadditionalfinancingtosupporthigherthanexpectedweiborelatedexpenses;4)largerthanexpectedlossesfrominvestmentimpairmentsinFY13andFY14;5)SlowerthanexpectedupgradesonSINA'smobileappseries.
Figure2:TimeonSiteforweibo.
com(Mar-May)Figure3:TimeonSiteforweibo.
com(Apr-June)Source:alexa.
com.
Source:alexa.
com.
27June201227SinaCorporation(SINAUS)CompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of8RevisedownTPfromUSD96.
0toUSD70.
0,upgradeinvestmentratingto"Accumulate".
WeexpectSINA'soperatingmargintobottomoutinFY12andtheCompanytobeabletorecordprofitagaininFY13,howeverthecontributionfromweibomonetizationislimitedandtherecoveryinonlineadvertisingmarketmaybeslowerthanwhatthemarketexpects.
WeusedDCFvaluationasareferencetosetourTPofUSD70.
0asSina'scurrentbusinessexcludingweiboisvaluedatUSD21.
7pershare,andconsideringtheweibo'svaluationrangeofUSD2.
1to3.
4billion,theDCFvaluationforSINAisUSD52.
8to72.
1pershare.
WebelievethemonetizationpotentialofSINAweibowillbegraduallyrevealedinFY13-FY14andanytemporarydropinsharepricemaycreateopportunitiestoincreaseshareholdings.
ThereforeweupgradeSINA'sinvestmentratingto"Accumulate".
Figure4:SegmentGPMtrendsFigure5:Operatingmargintrends30.
0%35.
0%40.
0%45.
0%50.
0%55.
0%60.
0%65.
0%70.
0%75.
0%FY03AFY04AFY05AFY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12FFY13FAdsgrossmarginMVASgrossmarginAggregategrossmargin-10.
0%-5.
0%0.
0%5.
0%10.
0%15.
0%20.
0%25.
0%30.
0%35.
0%40.
0%FY03AFY04AFY05AFY06AFY07AFY08AFY09AFY10AFY11AFY12FFY13FGAAPoperatingmarginNon-GAAPoperatingmarginSource:TheCompany,GuotaiJunanInternational.
Source:TheCompany,GuotaiJunanInternational.
27June201227SinaCorporation(SINAUS)CompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of8Table1:PeersComparison(CHINAINTERNET)CompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastPriceMarketCapPEPBROE(%)NPM(%)HKD11A12F13F14F11A12F13F14F12F12FCHINAINTERNET-GamingandadvertisingTencent700HKHKD218.
60402,988.
322.
625.
119.
816.
08.
18.
05.
84.
436.
331.
4NeteaseNTESUSUSD58.
3559,167.
211.
412.
311.
010.
32.
82.
92.
32.
026.
144.
7ShandaGamesGAMEUSUSD4.
008,695.
45.
24.
94.
43.
81.
41.
41.
10.
932.
026.
6ChangyouCYOUUSUSD20.
978,544.
54.
94.
44.
03.
84.
21.
31.
00.
835.
443.
3GiantInteractiveGAUSUSD4.
558,296.
06.
85.
95.
55.
42.
42.
11.
61.
440.
254.
1Kingsoft3888HKHKD3.
544,147.
98.
29.
68.
87.
51.
31.
41.
31.
115.
530.
9PerfectWorldPWRDUSUSD9.
123,357.
43.
43.
73.
32.
70.
80.
70.
60.
519.
427.
5Netdragon777HKHKD6.
603,396.
414.
413.
09.
58.
21.
31.
81.
61.
713.
821.
4KongzhongKONGUSUSD7.
842,527.
618.
812.
410.
6n.
a.
0.
6n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
18.
4The9NCTYUSUSD5.
851,110.
2n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
0.
9n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
(26.
9)(91.
9)SimpleAverage10.
610.
28.
57.
22.
42.
51.
91.
621.
320.
6WeightedAverage20.
022.
117.
614.
47.
06.
95.
03.
834.
333.
0-SNSRenrenRENNUSUSD4.
6814,332.
123.
7n.
a.
n.
a.
146.
31.
11.
51.
61.
5(3.
4)(24.
0)Jiayuan.
comDATEUSUSD4.
841,174.
048.
423.
718.
99.
92.
2n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
6.
88.
6SimpleAverage36.
023.
718.
978.
11.
71.
51.
61.
51.
7(7.
7)WeightedAverage25.
51.
81.
4135.
91.
21.
41.
41.
4(2.
6)(21.
6)-eCommerceAlibaba.
com1688HKHKD13.
4467,278.
819.
230.
226.
723.
94.
45.
84.
83.
919.
226.
2DangdangDANGUSUSD6.
323,918.
1n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
1.
94.
15.
55.
9(40.
5)(8.
3)GlobalSourcesGSOLUSUSD6.
651,740.
05.
88.
36.
9n.
a.
1.
9n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
12.
5MecoxLaneMCOXUSUSD0.
91409.
4n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
0.
60.
50.
7n.
a.
(17.
4)(9.
4)SimpleAverage12.
519.
316.
823.
92.
23.
43.
64.
9(12.
9)5.
3WeightedAverage17.
727.
924.
621.
94.
25.
54.
73.
915.
423.
9-SearchEngineBaiduBIDUUSUSD111.
82303,051.
338.
624.
117.
213.
616.
89.
66.
14.
349.
045.
8SimpleAverage38.
624.
117.
213.
616.
89.
66.
14.
349.
045.
8WeightedAverage2.
91.
81.
31.
01.
30.
70.
50.
33.
73.
5-MediaandPortalSinaSINAUSUSD52.
1226,657.
255.
9267.
344.
925.
33.
33.
12.
92.
60.
22.
7SohuSOHUUSUSD40.
6611,986.
811.
413.
810.
17.
91.
81.
31.
21.
012.
011.
2SimpleAverage33.
7140.
527.
516.
62.
52.
22.
11.
86.
17.
0WeightedAverage42.
1188.
734.
119.
92.
82.
52.
42.
13.
85.
4-OnlinevideoYoukuYOKUUSUSD21.
6019,241.
1n.
a.
n.
a.
81.
325.
22.
73.
93.
73.
2(5.
2)(11.
8)TudouTUDOUSUSD33.
229,032.
6n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
13.
51.
68.
515.
52.
0(14.
0)(38.
9)Ku6KUTVUSUSD1.
37533.
6n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
1.
2n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
SimpleAveragen.
a.
n.
a.
81.
319.
41.
86.
29.
62.
6(9.
6)(25.
3)WeightedAverage0.
00.
054.
321.
12.
35.
37.
32.
7(7.
9)(20.
1)-GamingandadvertisingQihoo360QIHUUSUSD17.
2415,975.
1116.
225.
516.
511.
95.
04.
43.
52.
817.
228.
5ChinasoftIntl.
354HKHKD1.
903,132.
921.
310.
77.
35.
41.
61.
21.
00.
912.
37.
7KingdeeIntl.
268HKHKD1.
483,723.
929.
413.
69.
98.
42.
61.
71.
41.
312.
99.
2InspurIntl.
596HKHKD0.
22921.
415.
6n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
0.
5n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
SimpleAverage45.
616.
611.
28.
62.
52.
42.
01.
714.
115.
1WeightedAverage86.
220.
713.
610.
04.
03.
42.
72.
215.
221.
6-OnlinevideoCtrip.
comCTRPUSUSD16.
6018,524.
120.
914.
111.
611.
13.
01.
91.
71.
512.
726.
551JobJOBSUSUSD43.
709,758.
219.
717.
214.
410.
73.
63.
12.
52.
120.
332.
4ElongLONGUSUSD11.
353,018.
075.
130.
718.
9n.
a.
1.
6n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
10.
9SimpleAverage38.
620.
715.
010.
92.
72.
52.
11.
816.
523.
3WeightedAverage25.
716.
713.
19.
93.
02.
11.
81.
513.
926.
9CNInternet:MktCapWghtAvg27.
4928.
3019.
1816.
719.
137.
085.
103.
7233.
3132.
34Source:Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanInternational.
27June201227SinaCorporation(SINAUS)CompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of8Table2:PeersComparison(USLISTEDINTERNET&OTHERS)CompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastPriceMarketCapPEPBROE(%)NPM(%)HKD11A12F13F14F11A12F13F14F12F12FGoogleGOOGUSUSD566.
071,431,771.
021.
713.
111.
29.
73.
62.
52.
11.
819.
738.
6YandexYNDXUSUSD17.
5344,256.
734.
622.
716.
612.
86.
75.
24.
03.
125.
528.
9AppleAAPLUSUSD573.
874,164,550.
214.
612.
210.
58.
94.
94.
53.
42.
542.
327.
4AmazonAMZNUSUSD225.
34787,505.
7126.
493.
555.
636.
110.
213.
110.
98.
67.
71.
6EbayEBAYUSUSD42.
69427,620.
417.
218.
115.
613.
62.
22.
72.
32.
014.
722.
0IBMIBMUSUSD193.
191,728,770.
513.
712.
811.
610.
810.
68.
56.
65.
471.
415.
9YahooYHOOUSUSD15.
27144,885.
619.
215.
313.
511.
81.
51.
31.
21.
17.
627.
1MicrosoftMSFTUSUSD30.
201,968,294.
39.
811.
29.
88.
93.
83.
52.
92.
434.
030.
8OracleORCLUSUSD27.
831,074,544.
819.
311.
510.
59.
64.
43.
12.
62.
226.
933.
2GrouponGRPNUSUSD10.
1650,912.
2n.
a.
56.
115.
411.
518.
89.
46.
43.
97.
54.
6NetflixNFLXUSUSD67.
1728,947.
816.
3109.
626.
516.
56.
05.
24.
53.
012.
10.
6AdobeADBEUSUSD31.
00119,301.
215.
312.
811.
710.
62.
32.
32.
01.
719.
427.
1SymantecSYMCUSUSD14.
0278,408.
121.
28.
78.
47.
63.
12.
01.
71.
523.
717.
8ActivisionBlizzardATVIUSUSD11.
5499,547.
013.
211.
810.
79.
21.
31.
21.
11.
110.
024.
0EAEAUSUSD12.
1930,065.
918.
214.
510.
99.
42.
51.
51.
51.
39.
66.
7NintendoNTDOYUSUSD14.
23125,141.
3n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
FacebookFBUSUSD32.
73604,089.
1n.
a.
63.
850.
038.
7n.
a.
6.
96.
85.
816.
924.
7ZyngaZNGAUSUSD6.
2235,610.
232.
823.
016.
812.
53.
92.
72.
72.
312.
516.
2SimpleAverage26.
230.
018.
014.
05.
44.
53.
72.
921.
320.
4WeightedAverage21.
220.
115.
412.
55.
25.
04.
03.
235.
225.
6Source:Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanInternational.
27June201227SinaCorporation(SINAUS)CompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage7of8FinancialStatementsandRatiosIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearendDec.
(USDmn)FY10AFY11AFY12FFY13FFY14FYearendDec.
(US$mn)FY10AFY11AFY12FFY13FFY14FAdvertising291369447551667AssetsNon-advertising112114132141145Cashandcashequivalents644514422446433-MVAS8683888785Short-terminvestments239159141147212-Others2631445460A/R90112127163174Netrevenues:403483578691812Prepaidexpensesandothers3642495461yoy12.
3%19.
9%19.
7%19.
6%17.
5%Totalcurrentassets1,009828739810881Costsofrevenue:168215258282323PPE,net3375116152188-Advertising116157204229270Investmentinequityinterest508464450446490-Non-advertising5258545454Intangibleassets,net21112Grossprofit234267320409489Goodwill8415838383yoy16.
9%14.
2%19.
6%27.
9%19.
5%Otherassets091055Totalnon-currentassets627564659686768SalesandmarketingExpenses(78)(136)(145)(151)(166)Productdevelopment(34)(66)(107)(125)(147)Totalassets:1,6361,3911,3981,4961,649G&A(23)(30)(32)(35)(41)Amortizationofintangibleassets(3)(1)(2)(1)(1)Accountspayable49667Incomefromoperations96(34)3496134Accruedliabilities96140132162190yoy158.
7%n.
a.
n.
a.
183.
0%39.
3%Incometaxespayable1715232831Convertibledebt992222Incomefromequityinvestment131(14)(3)(1)Others3234284047Gainonsaleofbusiness&others(120)(265)(43)(74)(61)Totalcurrentliabilities248201191237278Incomebeforeincometaxes(11)(297)(23)2071Otherliabilities22455Incometaxexpenses(8)(5)(4)(9)(7)Deferredrevenue1451271088970Less:NCI(0)(0)(1)(1)(1)Totallong-termliabilities1481281129475GAAPNetincomeattrib.
toSINA(19)(302)(26)1165yoyn.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
471.
0%Totalliabilities:396329303331354Non-GAAPnetincomeAttrib.
toSINA114621481122Ordinaryshares899910GAAPEPS(USD)(0.
31)(4.
64)(0.
39)0.
160.
88Additionalpaid-incapital596715785843909yoyn.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
447.
5%Retainedearnings571269243254319GAAPDilutedEPS(USD)(0.
31)(4.
64)(0.
39)0.
170.
95Others6462535353Non-GAAPDilutedEPS(USD)1.
860.
950.
221.
201.
79Totalshareholders'equity1,2391,0561,0901,1601,291MI17654CashFlowStatementTotalliabilitiesandequity1,6361,3911,3981,4961,649YearendDec.
(US$mn)FY10AFY11AFY12FFY13FFY14FNetdebt(inclCB)(545)(512)(420)(444)(431)Netincome(loss)(19)(302)(27)1164FinancialRatioAdjustments%FY10AFY11AFY12FFY13FFY14FInvestmentimpairment(gain)129282508068Stock-basedcompensation1317171717ProfitabilityProvisionforlossesonreceivables13688Grossmargin(%)58.
255.
455.
359.
260.
2ChangesinWP(11)(17)(32)1022Operatingmargin(%)23.
9(7.
0)5.
913.
916.
5-Accountsreceivable(13)(20)(14)(36)(11)Netmargin(%)(4.
7)(62.
6)(4.
5)1.
68.
0-Accountspayable(0)(0)(3)01ROE(%)(1.
6)(26.
3)(2.
4)1.
05.
3-Accruedliabilities1237(8)3029ROA(%)(1.
2)(20.
0)(1.
9)0.
84.
1-Incometaxespayable2(3)854ROCE(%)(3.
0)(48.
5)(4.
3)1.
68.
2-Others(11)(31)(14)110Others485332827AssetmanagementNetcashprovidedbyoperatingact.
1176747153207A/Creceivabledays7576767776A/Cpayabledays6111187PurchasesofPPE(21)(55)(60)(80)(99)Purchaseofintangibleassets000(1)(1)DebtmanagementOthers(215)(163)(96)(68)(139)Netgearing(%)NetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashusedininvestingact.
(236)(218)(156)(150)(239)Currentratio4.
14.
13.
93.
43.
2Debt/equityratio0.
30.
30.
30.
30.
3Proceedsfromissuanceofshares126101313Others(1)7122MarketNetcashprovidedbyfinancingact.
1214121516EV(USDm)2,6832,9273,1403,2823,453PE(x)n.
a.
n.
a.
n.
a.
328.
460.
0Effectofexchangeratechange59554EV/Turnover(x)6.
76.
15.
44.
74.
3Cashatthebeginningofyear746644514422446EV/EBITDA(x)25.
4n.
a.
58.
026.
821.
5Cashattheendofyear644514422446433P/OCF(x)27.
751.
675.
224.
318.
8P/B(x)2.
63.
33.
33.
23.
0OperatingCFpershare(USD)1.
901.
020.
702.
172.
81Divyield(%)0.
00.
00.
00.
00.
0Source:theCompany,GuotaiJunanInternational.
27June201227SinaCorporation(SINAUS)CompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage8of8CompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmark:HongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon:6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuyRelativePerformance>15%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorable.
AccumulateRelativePerformanceis5%to15%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorable.
NeutralRelativePerformanceis-5%to5%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral.
ReduceRelativePerformanceis-5%to-15%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorable.
SellRelativePerformance5%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorable.
NeutralRelativePerformanceis-5%to5%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutral.
UnderperformRelativePerformance<-5%;orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorable.
DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS(1)TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport.
(2)TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport.
(3)ExceptforShandongChenmingPapersHoldingsLimited-Hshares(01812)andChinaCityRailwayTransportationTechnologyHoldingsCompanyLimited(08240),GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1%ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport.
(4)GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months.
DISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquire,purchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecurities(HongKong)Limited("GuotaiJunan").
GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreports,includinginvestmentbanking,investmentservicesandetc.
(forexample,theplacingagent,leadmanager,sponsor,underwriterorinvestproprietarily).
Anyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersons,dealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompanies.
AnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunan.
ThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReport,GuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddataherein.
ThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituation,souncertaintymaycontain.
Investorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisks,andwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecision.
ThisResearchReportisnotdirectedat,orintendedfordistributiontooruseby,anypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistribution,publication,availabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction.
2012GuotaiJunanSecurities(HongKong)Limited.
AllRightsReserved.
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