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2019

,toLose

WhyEquallyTalentedStudentsDon’tGetEqual Chances to BeAll They CanBe

Anthony P.Carnevale

Megan L. Fasules

Michael C.Quinn

KathrynPeltier

Campbel l

2019

Reaching for the AmericanDream

Affluencesecuresopportunity,evenforstudentswith High-achieving chi ldren from poorfamilies have loweroddslow earlyachievement. ofsuccess.

Ehvelfnwhehntheystkairtwithbottom- h h f i l i f h hi h i l Manyikhindergartnerswithfami l iesfromthe lowestSESquarti lestartoutwith highacademic achievement,a mat scores, ndergartnersw o aveames romt e g estquart e butwt outofsocioeconomicstatus(SES)ofte-nreceivethematerialsupporttheyneedtoincreasetheirscores,earncol leg the same protective environments avai lable totheir high-SES peers, they are less l ikely to be al l theye degrees,andworkingoodentry leveljobsasyoungadults. can be.

viv GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITYCENTER ON EDUCATION ANDTHEWORKFORCE BORNTOWIN, SCHOOLEDTOLOSE

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the individuals and organizationswhose generoussupport has madethis report possible: Lumina Foundation (Jamie

Merisotis,Wendy Sedlak,Hol ly Zanvi l le, and Susan D. Johnson); the Bi l l&Mel inda Gates Foundation (Patrick Methvin and Jamey Rorison); the JoyceFoundation (Sameer Gadkaree); and the Annie E.Casey Foundation (BobGi loth and Al l ison Gerber).We are honored to be their partners in ourshared mission of promoting postsecondary access, completion,andcareer success for al l Americans.

The staff of the Georgetown University Center on Education and theWorkforce was instrumental in the production of this report fromconceptionto publ ication. In particular,wewould l iketo thank

Jeff Strohl for research direction;

Andrea Porter for strategic guidance;

Nicole Smith for economic methodology;

Martin Van Der Werf,Tanya I.Garcia, and Artem Gul ish foreditorial and qual itative feedback;

Hilary Strahota, Vikki Hartt Salinkas, Emma Wenzinger, andFrankZhang forcommunications efforts, including designdevelopment and publ ic relations;and

Joe Leonard and Coral Castro for assistance with logistics and operations.Many othersfcohntributedtheirthoughltls and feedbfacl kthroughlout theproduction o t is report.We especia y are grate u to ourta enteddesign’ers,editorial advisors,and printers,whose efforts were vital to thisreport s successful completion.We would also l ike tothank Brian Bridgesof the United Negro Col lege Fund,who provided feedback on an earl ierversion of this report,and Vanessa Scanfeld of the Harlem Academy,whose questions encouraged us to explore this topic.

The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and donot necessarily represent those of Lumina Foundation, the Bill&MelindaGates

Foundation,theJoyceFoundation,ortheAnnieE.CaseyFoundation,oranyoftheirofficersoremployees.Allerrorsandomissionsaretheresponsibilityofthea uthors.

Contents

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

KeyFindings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

Part1:ConditionedbyUnequalEnvironments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

The environment that high socioeconomic status can provide tendsto protect chi ldren and propel themto succeed. 9Advantaged chi ldren benefit from their parents’habitsandeducational experiences. 11Schools and peers contribute toupper-class advantage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

Blackand Latino chi ldren in particularface the additional chal lengesof discriminationandsegregation. 14Education has the potential to be thegreatequal izer. 16Part2:Trave li ngthe Uneve nAcadem icPathway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17

Academic gaps are already large in the first yearofschool . 17The moredisadvantaged chi ldrenare, the less l ikelytheyare to recoverif theirtestscores fal l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

Advantage helps propel students towardacademicsuccess. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

The effects of advantage and disadvantage continue through high school—but paths are less l ikelyto change atthatpoint. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20

K–12 academicdevelopment and socioeconomicstatus both playa rolein col lege enrol lmentandcompletion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

Race and’ethnicity interact with socioeconomic status to affectstudents l ikel ihood of achieving and maintainingacademicsuccess. 25

K–16 academic performance haslastingconsequences. 31Part 3:EarlyCareerSucce ss. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32

Students with high testscores in 10th grade have betterchances of earlycareer success regardless of raceorethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34

By facing and addressing the facts,we can revive theAmericanDream. . . .37Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38

Pol icyRecommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39

Re fe re n ce s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41

AppendixA:DataSourcesandMethodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45

Appendix B:RobustnessChecks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47

Figures

Figure1 The highest-SES fami l ies spend five times as much on enrichmentactivitiesas thelowest-SESfami l ies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

Figure2 Almtost al ldchi ldredn frotim highest-SEdStfaml i l iesthhave attlheiasdtofnehipldarentfwithl somet-

SpoEsSfsaemcoi l inesarye uca on,compare o ess anone r o c ren romowes

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

1

Figure3 Compared to highest-SES students,a smal lershare of lowest-SES students saytheywantto attend col lege,and even fewer perceive themselves as actual ly l ikelytoattend. 12Figure4 Black, Lati-no,and Asian chi ldren are more l ikelythanWhite chi ldren to comefromthe lowest SESfami l ies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

Figure5 Kindergartners from high-SESfami l ies are more l ikelythan their low-SES peers toscorein the top half onmathassessments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

those in the lowest SES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

Figure7 Kindergartners who score in the bottom half of math assessments are much more l ikelytomove into the top half of al l students by the eighth grade if theyare in higherSESquarti les. 20Figure8 Almost al l students who score in the top quarti le in tenth-grade math alsoscorein the top half in the twelfth grade. 21Figure9 Most tenth graders who score in the bottom math quarti le remain there intwelfthgrade. 22Figure 10 Lowest-SES tenth graders with top math scores are less l ikely to immediately enrol lin a col lege than highest-SES tenth graders with bottommathscores. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24

Figure 11 Regardless of math scores in high school, lowest-SES tenth graders are less l ikelythantheir highest-SES counterparts to have completed a col lege degree 10yearslater. . . . . . . . . . . . . .25

Figure 12 Both high-and low-SESWhite and Asian chi ldren are more l ikelyto have top-halfkindergarten math scores than their Black andLatinopeers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27

Figure 13 Regardless of SES,Black kindergartners with bottom-half math scores are much less l ikelythan theirWhite, Latino,orAsian peers to have top-half math scores bytheeighthgrade. .28Figure 14 Regardless of SES,Black kindergarte-ners with top-half math scores are more l ikely thanother kindergartners to have bottom half math scores aseighthgraders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

Figure 15 Whiteand Asian tenth graders are more l ikelythan theirBlackorLatino peers to haveearned a col lege degree within 10 years, no mattertheirmathscores. 30Figure 16 Tenth graders in the lowest SES quarti le are relatively l ikely to stay there as young adults,whi le tenth graders in the highest SES quarti le are relatively l ikely to maintainhighSES. 33Figure 17 Lowest-SES tenth graders with top math scores are more economical ly mobi lethban t-heirdpieersSEwSith bottom math scores,but theyare sti l l less l ikelyto reacha ove me anas young adults than tenth graders who start in thehighest-SEScategory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34

Figure 18 Among low-SEStenth graders,Whitesand Asiansare more l ikelythan Blacks and Latinosto become high-SES young adults intheirmid-20s. 35Figure 19 Low-SEStenth graderswith top math scoresare much more l ikelyto rise into the upperhalfof SES distribution among theirpeers and be successful in theirearlycareers 10yearslater. 36

INTRODUCTION

In America,

It’s Often

Better to

BeRichthanSma rt

Based o’nthis ideal of equalopportunity, its tempting to bel ieve thateducation andcareeroutcomes reflect a natural sorting according tomerit. But this presumption risks suggesting thatthose who do not thrive in school ortheworkforce lack talent—when, in fact, they moreoften lacksuffichienht syfstel lmic suppol rt onthejourney to reac t eir u potentia.

In the United States, there is a broadly heldpresumption that thejourney along the pipel inefrom kindergarten to early c’areer successgradual ly reveals each chi lds innate abi l ities. 1

This presumption is widespread not only in thegeneral publ ic, but among students themselves,who self-identify and identify each other as eitheracademical ly gifted or general lyundistinguished.Al ltoooften,thes’ebel iefsaboutone’s ta-lents and the talents of one s peers becomeself fulfi l l ingprophesies.

The notionthat talent wi l l always rise to the topcanbe harmful, ashit prevents investments inlinterventions t at promote upward mobi ity. If

BORN TO WIN

In this study,we test the idea that Thebsiel ifindingbssuggesttdhattalientisn’itfixed: innai tdemonstrated achievement is a perfect e a tycan enurture overt me,ortcanrema nreflectio’n of innate abi l ity bytracingchi ldrens journeys through and beyond the

1 tRheastaelalorcwhserorsohmafvoerdcehsacnrgibeeindtthheisbeeqluieafltithiaetsinSteelel igCelanrcoeeatandl t,a―GlernotwatrheiMninnadtseeatnTdedmopneortscthhaenEgffeeacstas―offixPeodvmeirntydosneAt,c‖aindceomnticraAsctthoiethvee―mgreonwt,t‖h2m0i1n6dset‖

2 GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITYCENTERON EDUCATIONANDTHE WORKFORCE

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