Influencewinds演唱会

12018AIRWorldwide12018U.
S.
HurricaneSeasonPreviewEricUhlhorn,Ph.
D.
22018AIRWorldwide2MeetDr.
UhlhornDr.
EricUhlhornPrincipalScientistThat'sme!
32018AIRWorldwide3Agenda2017HurricaneSeasonRecapFactorsInfluencingHurricaneActivitySeasonalForecasts42018AIRWorldwide42017HurricaneSeasonRecapAIRDamageSurvey,HurricaneMaria,PuertoRico(2017)52018AIRWorldwide52017HurricaneSeasonRecap:Atlantic2017Avg.
NamedStorms1712Hurricanes106MajorHurricanes63Landfalls7MajorHurricaneLandfalls3Source:NHC/NOAA62018AIRWorldwide62017HurricaneSeasonRecap:Atlantic2Cat4landfallsin15days3Cat4landfallsinU.
S.
/Territories10hurricanesinarow3hurricanesatsametimeSource:NOAA/NASAGOESProject72018AIRWorldwide72017HurricaneSeasonRecap:Eastern/CentralPacific2017Avg.
NamedStorms1815Hurricanes98MajorHurricanes43Landfalls1MajorHurricaneLandfalls0Source:NHC/NOAA82018AIRWorldwide82017ENSOPredictionsvs.
ResultsLaNiaElNioConsensusMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebObserved92018AIRWorldwide9Learnmoreaboutthe2017hurricaneseasonbyvisitingourOn-DemandWebinarspage2017AIRHurricaneSeasonPreview:WatchnowTheImpactofHurricanesHarveyandIrmaontheU.
S.
Mainland:WatchnowLookingBackatanActive2017HurricaneSeason:Watchnow102018AIRWorldwide10FactorsInfluencingSeasonalHurricaneActivity112018AIRWorldwide11EnvironmentalFactorsImpactGenesisProbabilityHighProb.
LowProb.
VorticityGenesisProbabilitySeaSurfaceTemp.
HumidityShear122018AIRWorldwide12AtlanticBasinSeaSurfaceTemperature(SST)FarBelowAverageinMainDevelopmentRegion(MDR)NorthAtlanticSSTAnomalyMay2017MDRMay2018MDR132018AIRWorldwide13ElNio/SouthernOscillation(ENSO)April2017April2018EastPacificSSTAnomalyNino3.
4SSTAnomaly:+0.
32Nino3.
4SSTAnomaly:-0.
45Nino3.
4Nino3.
4142018AIRWorldwide14ENSOForecastsTrendingTowardElNioSource:iri.
columbia.
eduElNio–ActivitysuppressedLaNia–Activityenhanced152018AIRWorldwide15ElNioTeleconnectiontotheAtlanticSource:climate.
gov162018AIRWorldwide16GlobalSSTForecastsPredictWarminginPacificandAtlantic,ResultinginAverageConditionsSource:cpc.
ncep.
noaa.
gov172018AIRWorldwide17SecondaryFactors182018AIRWorldwide18NorthAtlanticOscillation(NAO)CanInfluenceLandfallsNAOPositivePhaseNAONegativePhaseSource:Elsner,2003NAOPhaseImpacts:StormtracksStormpropagationspeedsAtlanticSSTLandfalllocationsSource:cpc.
ncep.
noaa.
govHH192018AIRWorldwide19Madden-JulianOscillation(MJO)SupportsBriefPeriodsofEnhancedActivitySource:Wheeler,M.
C.
,andH.
H.
Hendon,2004Precipitationanomaly202018AIRWorldwide20Phases1and2supportincreasedactivityPhases6and7supportsuppressedactivityTheMJOandAtlanticHurricanesPhase1&2Phase6&7MajorHurricaneTracks1974-2007Source:Klotzbach(2010),JournalofClimate212018AIRWorldwide21SaharanAirLayer(SAL)CanWeakenHurricanesSource:noaa.
gov222018AIRWorldwide22VolcanicAshCanImpactClimate>60,000feetKilauea,Hawaii(2018)VolcándeFuego,Guatemala(2018)20,000ft.
50,000ft.
AnimationcourtesyCSU/CIRA/RAMMBThelargestvolcanicexplosions(>60,000ft.
)canejectashintothestratosphereSuspendedparticlesscattersolarradiation,causingtemporaryglobalcoolingSullivan,C.
(2016),Fewertropicalcyclonesformaftervolcaniceruptions,EOS,97.
232018AIRWorldwide23SeasonalForecasts242018AIRWorldwide24Thisforecastisbasedonanextended-rangeearlyJunestatisticalpredictionschemedevelopedusing29yearsofhistoricaldata.
ObservedSSTsinE.
Atlantic(+)Upper-levelzonalwinds(+)EuropeanCentreforMediumRangeWeatherForecasts(ECMWF)SSTforecastinE.
Pacific(-)Sealevelpressure(-)Source:tropical.
colostate.
eduSummaryofJunePredictorsofSeasonalActivity252018AIRWorldwide25ObservedSSTsinE.
Atlanticbelownormal(-)BELOWUpper-levelzonalwinds(+)ABOVEECMWFSSTforecastinE.
Pacific(+)BELOWMayAtlanticsealevelpressure(+)BELOWSummaryofJunePredictorsofSeasonalActivityCSUforecast:AveragelevelofactivityintheAtlanticBasinSource:tropical.
colostate.
edu262018AIRWorldwide26Totalseasonactivity'slinktolandfallispoorCurrentlyactiveareaofresearchU.
S.
LandfallProbabilitiesCSUforecast:Near-averageprobabilityoflandfallingtropicalcyclonesthroughouttheAtlanticBasinSource:tropical.
colostate.
edu272018AIRWorldwide27SeasonalForecasts–NOAA'sOfficialEasternPacificNamedStorms14-20Hurricanes7-12MajorHurricanes3-7ACE80-160%medianAtlanticNamedStorms10-16Hurricanes5-9MajorHurricanes1-4ACE65-145%medianNear-orAbove-Normal(80%probability)Near-orAbove-Normal(75%probability)282018AIRWorldwide28http://www.
bsc.
es/seasonalhurricanepredictionshttp://www.
bsc.
es/seasonalhurricanepredictionsSeasonalForecasts292018AIRWorldwide29Seasontotalnumbersof:–Namedstorms–Hurricanes–Majorhurricanes(Saffir-SimpsonCategory3andhigher)–AccumulatedCycloneEnergy(ACE)OftenwithrangesofuncertaintyForecastsupdatedthroughouttheyearSeasonalForecastsACE=1042302018AIRWorldwide30NumberofNamedStormsClimatologicalAverageMarch-AprilAverageMay-JuneAverage312018AIRWorldwide31NumberofHurricanesClimatologicalAverageMarch-AprilAverageMay-JuneAverage322018AIRWorldwide32NumberofMajorHurricanesClimatologicalAverageMarch-AprilAverageMay-JuneAverage332018AIRWorldwide33AccumulatedCycloneEnergy(ACE)ClimatologicalAverageMarch-AprilAverageMay-JuneAverage342018AIRWorldwide342012AtlanticStormNamesAlbertoHeleneOscarBerylIsaacPattyChrisJoyceRafaelDebbyKirkSandyErnestoLeslieTonyFlorenceMichaelValerieGordonNadineWilliam352018AIRWorldwide352018AtlanticStormNamesAlbertoHeleneOscarBerylIsaacPattyChrisJoyceRafaelDebbyKirkErnestoLeslieTonyFlorenceMichaelValerieGordonNadineWilliamSara362018AIRWorldwide36SubtropicalStormAlberto4thconsecutiveyearwithastormformingintheAtlanticbeforetheofficialbeginningoftheseason372018AIRWorldwide372018PacificStormNamesAlettaIleanaRosaBudJohnSergioCarlottaKristyTaraDanielLaneVincenteEmiliaMiriamWillaFabioNormanXavierGilmaOliviaYolandaHectorPaulZeke382018AIRWorldwide38BothCategory4majorhurricanesBudexpectedtomakelandfallontheSouthernBajaPeninsulatomorrowasaTSPacificHurricanesAlettaandBudAlettaremnantsBud392018AIRWorldwide39CoolerAtlanticseasurfacetemperaturesremainingduringtheseasonIncreasedprobabilityofaneutralENSOduetoaweakElNioAugustupdateswillrevealmoreForecastsTrendingDownward402018AIRWorldwide40RecentHurricaneActivityAlignswithLong-TermAveragesEvenwithscientificadvancementsandmoredataavailablethanever,hurricaneforecastsareunreliable—thinkabout2017'sENSOforecastbust!
Modelshelpusunderstandandprepareforthelongterm412018AIRWorldwide41AIRHurricaneContest422018AIRWorldwide42AIRHurricaneContest05101520253035ClientExpertActualAverage(1900-2017)NamedStormsHurricanesMajorHurricanesU.
S.
Landfalls126227-188-330-193-130-82-101-4432018AIRWorldwide43Arecordingoftoday'swebinarandtheslidedeckwillbedistributedshortly.
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