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IrishEmigrationPatternsandCitizensAbroadAdiasporaof70million1.
Itisimportanttorecallfromtheoutsetthattheoft-quotedfigureof70milliondoesnotpurporttobethenumberofIrishemigrants,abroadnorthenumberofIrishcitizensabroad.
RatheritisafigurethatcouldbeseenasrelatingbesttothereferenceinArticle2ofBunreachtnahireannwhichstatesthat"TheIrishnationcherishesitsspecialaffinitywithpeopleofIrishancestrylivingabroadwhoshareitsculturalidentityandheritage.
"2.
Thevastmajorityofthis70millionfigurearedescendantsofIrishemigrants,oftenthroughseveralgenerationsstartingwiththosewholeftIrelandaroundthetimeoftheFamine.
Thelargestgroupinthisfigureisthe36millionpeopleinAmericawhointhelastcensusself-identifiedas"Irish-American"or"Scots-Irish".
Thebalanceofthe70millionfigurewouldbemadeupoflargeIrishancestrypopulationsinBritain,Canada,AustraliaandNewZealandandsmallerIrishancestrypopulationsinContinentalEuropeandLatinAmerica.
3.
Intermsofactualcitizensabroad,itisestimatedthatthereareapproximately1.
47millioncitizensresidentoutsidetheState.
ThisfiguredoesnotincludethepopulationofNorthernIrelandandtheirdescendantsinBritain,whototal2.
121millionpeople.
ItshouldberecalledthatundertheGoodFridayAgreementpeopleinNorthernIrelandhavetherighttobeBritish,Irishorboth.
HistoricIrishEmigrationProfiles4.
HistoricallyIrelandhasoccupiedanunusualplaceinthewiderpatternofEuropeanemigration,withverylargenumbersofemigrantsrelativetothetotalpopulationofthecountry.
Therewasacontinuousdeclineinpopulationfrom8.
2millionpeoplein1841to4.
2millionin1961.
ThepeakyearsofemigrantoutflowwereintheimmediateaftermathoftheGreatFamineof1847-51.
Inthedecadesupto1921thevastmajority(>80%)ofemigrantsfromIrelandwenttoAmerica.
Post-1921duetopoliticalandeconomicchangestherewasshifttoBritainwhichintothe1960sremainedthedestinationofchoiceforover80%ofemigrants1,andremainedthedestinationforthelargestnumberofIrishemigrantsupuntilthe1990s.
2Irishemigrationisalsonotableforthenumberofwomenwhohaveemigrated–upuntilthe1980swomen'sratesofemigrationwereoftenhigherthanmen's.
5.
AstherearenoofficialrecordskeptoftheexactnumberorpurposeofpeopleleavingIreland,noranylegalrequirementforIrishcitizensabroadtoregisterwiththeIrishauthorities,estimateshavetobemadebothofthenumbersemigratingfromIreland,andofthenumberofIrishcitizenslivingoverseasataparticulartime.
Forlookingathistoricpatterns,censusdataisthemostusefultool,butitshouldbenotedthatthecensusfiguresprovidesabalanceofout-migrationandin-migrationwhichisgenerallyregardedasunderestimatingthetruesizeofmigrationflowsinbothdirections.
6.
AfterthefirstwaveofmassemigrationintheaftermathoftheFamine,thereweretwofurtherlargewavesofoutwardmovementofpeoplefromIrelandinthelate1950sandthelate1980s.
7.
Grossemigrationinthe1950suntiltheearly1960swasapproximately500,000.
3Theemigrationofthe1950swasprimarilyaconsequenceofthelossofmen'sandwomen'sworkinagricultureandagriculturalrelatedemployment.
Economicdevelopmenthadyettocatchwithaboomingpopulationandasresulttherewasamasswaveofyoungemigrantswholeftovertheperiod.
Thosewhocouldn'tfindemploymentinagricultureandlightmanufacturing/industrywereparticularlyhardhitandassuchareasofthewestcoastandsatellitetownsandvillagesaroundmajorurbancentreswherethemainsourceofemigrants.
Emigrantsofthisgenerationweremainlyofthesemi-skilledorunskilledeconomicgroups.
8.
Thiswaveabatedinthe1960swiththepublicationofTKWhitaker'splanforEconomicDevelopment,andtheGovernment'sProgrammeforEconomicExpansionandstemmedfurtherinthe70swhenIreland'snewEECmembershipcamewithparticulareconomicbenefits.
1AlanBarrett(1999)http://ftp.
iza.
org/dp97.
pdf2BronwenWalter(2002)3UCChttps://www.
ucc.
ie/en/emigre/history/9.
Grossemigrationinthe1980swasapproximately450,000.
ThevastmajoritywouldhavegonetoBritain(~65%)followedbytheUnitedStates(~25%)withtheremaindermostlygoingtomajorEuropeanstatesandotherAnglophonecountries.
Thisgroupwouldhavehad,forthefirsttime,arelativelylargepercentageofhighlyskilledand/oreducatedpeople,andhadagreatgeographicspreadthanpreviouswaves,intermsofwhereinIrelandemigrantsleftfrom.
EmigrationfromurbancentresinIrelandbecameanewphenomenon.
IrishStateInvolvementintheWelfareofEmigrants10.
In1937,10migrantworkersfromAchillIslanddiedasresultofafireintheirsleepingquartersisvillagecalledKirkintollichinScotland.
AnInter-departmentalCommitteeonSeasonalMigrationwasestablished,buttheirreportin1938arguedthattheIrishstateshouldnotgetinvolvedinthewelfareconcernsofIrishnationalsinBritain.
ThatwelfarerolewasthenlargelyplayedbytheCatholicChurch.
11.
In1968therewasashiftinGovernmentalthinkingunderMinisterforLabourPatrickHillery,whenitwasproposedthatlocalemploymentexchangeswouldprovideinformationaboutemploymentinBritain,thatmutualrecognitionofeducationalqualificationsbeagreed,andthatsomestatefundingbemadeavailableforthewelfareofemigrantsinBritain.
Intheearly1970s,thenMinisterforLabourJoeBrennansetuptheCommitteeonWelfareServicestosupportyoungpeoplewhowereleavingforEnglandwithlittleornopreparationormoney.
Thiscommitteeof15peoplemetintheDepartmentofLabourinDublinandwassupersededin1984bytheestablishmentoftheLondon-basedDíonCommitteebythenMinisterforLabourRuairíQuinnwhowasoftheviewthatacommitteeinDublinwasnotsufficienttoaddresstheneedsofvulnerableIrishemigrantsinBritain.
In2004,followingthereportoftheTaskForceonPolicyRegardingEmigrants,theGovernmentestablishedtheEmigrantSupportProgramme,tobemanagedbyadedicatedunit,theIrishAbroadUnit,whichwassetupintheDepartmentofForeignAffairs.
Post-200812.
Grossemigrationfrom2008toend-2015wasapproximately630,000.
ThisfigureisinflatedbytheexistenceforthefirsttimeofsignificantimmigrantpopulationsinIreland,particularlyfromEUaccessionstatesinEasternEurope,manyofwhommovedonfromIrelandduringtherecessiontofindworkelsewhere.
13.
Post-2008thereweretwoverydistinctcategoriesofIrishemigrantsandtheycanbegroupedbyage30-45and18-30.
ForthefirsttimeanoverwhelmingmajorityofemigrantsdidnotgotoBritainortheUnitedStates.
Significantnumbersdidgotothesedestinations(particularlyBritain)butmanywenttoAustralia,CanadaandtoEUcountries.
ForthefirsttimeasignificantproportionalsowenttonewdestinationssuchastheMiddleEastandAsia.
14.
Theoldergroupofemigrantswouldhavebeenofprimeworkingageduringtheso-calledCelticTigerera.
Aftertheeconomiccrashof2008someofthisgroupwouldhaveemigratedabroadwhichwasnotable,astheywereolderthanpreviousemigrantgenerations,andmanywouldhavebrought,orleftbehind,families.
ThisreflectsincreasesinglobalmobilityandconnectivitybutalsothedemandabroadforIrishworkers.
Asaresultthisemigrantgroupwouldforthefirsttimehavehadamajorityofpeoplethatwerehighlyskilledand/oreducated.
Indeedaround60%ofthosewholeftin2009wereinemployment28,67565,93489,43677,12820,00040,00060,00080,000100,000200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015EmigrationofIrishCitizens(Eurostat)15.
Amongtheyoungeremigrantcohortpost-2008anevenhigherproportionfocusedinAustralia,NewZealand,CanadaandcoreEUcountries.
Thisgroupwouldmainlyhavecomeintotheworkforceaftertheeconomiccrashof2008.
Theyareamongthemosthighlymobile,educatedandskilledgroupofemigrantsintheworld.
DuetobeingraisedintheinternetagethisgroupwouldalsobeespeciallyconnectedtoIrelandandwouldbeconsumersandcontributorstoIrishculture,mediaandportevenwhilestillabroad.
Thekeydifferentialbetweenthisgroupandtheolderemigrantsisthattheywouldnothavebeennearlyasestablished(career,familyetc…)whentheyleft.
EstablishingtheNumberofIrishCitizensResidentoutsidetheState16.
ThereisnolegalrequirementforIrishcitizensresidentoverseastoregisterwiththeIrishauthorities,norarethereformalexitproceduresatIrishportsandairportsrecordingallcitizensleavingtoliveabroad.
AssuchthereisnoauthoritativeexactfigureforthenumberofIrishcitizensresidentabroad.
Assuch,accuratelyestimatingthenumberofIrishcitizensabroadisadifficulttaskduetolackofsufficientaccesstoqualityandconsistentdatasetsbothathomeandabroad.
WiththenotableexceptionsoftheCSO,OECDandcensusdatafromaselectnumberofhigh-incomecountries,itisdifficulttogetanexactnumberonIrishcitizens,extrapolatepopulationsorindeedsometimecomparelikeforlike.
44e.
g.
Censusdataabroadisbasedondifferentlywordedquestions7.
621.
99.
816.
40510152025200820092010201120122013201420152016IrishEmigrationdestinations,bythousandsofemigrants(CSO)UnitedKingdomEU15excludingIrelandandUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesAustraliaCanadaOthercountries(23)17.
Inearly2017,IrishAbroadUnitanalysedthemostrelevantavailabledata,andwhileitisopentofurtherinterrogation,arrivedatafigureof3.
601millionIrishcitizensresidentoutsidetheStatewhoarecitizensbyvirtueofbeingbornontheislandofIrelandorasaresultofaparent'sIrishcitizenship,wherethatcitizenshipisfrombeingbornontheislandofIreland,orwhohavecitizenshipthroughtheForeignBirthsRegistration(FBR)process.
18.
ItshouldberecalledthatundertheGoodFridayAgreementpeopleinNorthernIrelandhavetherighttobeBritish,Irishorboth.
Thefiguresbelowarebasedonamaximalistapproachand,forthesakeofclarity,includesallpeoplebornontheislandofIrelandasbeingIrishcitizens5.
LocationDetailNumbersRobustnessofData(1-5)NorthernIrelandGoodFridayAgreement1,870,0005BritainBornintheState382,0005BritainBorninNorthernIreland251,6005Britain1stgenerationchildrenofpeopleborninState214,9893Britain1stgenerationchildrenofpeopleborninNorthernIreland141,6003USBornontheislandofIreland127,0005US1stgenerationchildrenofpeoplebornintheState71,4753USUndocumentedIrish50,0003US1stgenerationchildrenofundocumentedIrish16,4152OECD(ex.
UK&US)BorninState255,00045ChangesintroducedundertheIrishNationalityandCitizenshipAct2004arenotrelevantforthepurposesofthispaperRestofWorld(ex.
OECD)BorninState57,0002OECD&RestofWorld(ex.
UK&US)1stgenerationchildrenofpeoplebornintheState48,0002ForeignBirthsRegistrationLiving115,7772TOTAL3,600,856LargeBaselinePopulationsinUKandUS19.
ThreelargeandhighqualitydatasetsonIrishcitizensresidentoutsidethestatecanimmediatelybeidentified.
ThefirstdatasetisthepopulationofNorthernIrelandwhichstandsat1.
87million6.
TheseconddatasetisderivedfromtheUK's2015PopulationSurvey7whichindicatesthatare382,000peopleresidentintheUKwhowereborninthe"RepublicofIreland.
"Similarlythereareatleast215,000peopleborninNorthernIrelandresidentinEnglandandWales8withatleastafurther36,600residentinScotland9.
Inthefirstinstancethenwecanidentifyaquantifiable633,000IrishcitizensinBritainwhoarecitizensbasedonbeingbornontheislandofIreland.
Thethirddatasetisthe2011-2015AmericanCommunitySurvey5-YearEstimates10whichindicatethat127,000peopleresidentinAmericawereborninIreland.
(ThissurveydoesnotdisaggregatebetweenthoseborninNorthernIrelandandtheState).
Thesethreedatasetscombinetogiveusabaselineof2.
63millionIrishcitizens.
6NISRA,(2017)http://www.
nisra.
gov.
uk/population_clock/ClockText.
html7ONS,(2015)https://www.
ons.
gov.
uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/populationoftheunitedkingdombycountryofbirthandnationality8ONS,(2011)https://www.
nomisweb.
co.
uk/census/2011/ks204ew9CensusScotland(2011)http://www.
scotlandscensus.
gov.
uk/ods-web/standard-outputs.
html10USCensusData(2015)https://factfinder.
census.
gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.
xhtmlpid=ACS_15_5YR_B05006&prodType=tableBuildingonBaselinePopulationsintheUKandUS20.
TheUSandUKfiguresaboveonlycapturethenumbersborninIreland,andnotthoseoffirstgenerationIrishcitizensbornintheUSorUKtoaparentbornIreland(whoarecitizensbyvirtueofhavinganIrishbornparent).
Projectingthispotentialpopulationaccuratelyisdifficult.
Initialanalysis11indicatesthatthiswouldconservatively(i.
e.
atleast)addanother428,0651stgenerationcitizensinBritainandtheUS(286,465whohaveaparentbornintheStateand141,600whohaveaparentborninNorthernIreland).
ThiswouldneedtobecombinedwiththenumbersofundocumentedIrishcitizensinAmerica,whoarenotlikelytobeaccountedforinUSofficialfigures,whichisestimatedat50,00012.
Takingthesamemethodologicalapproachasaboveinestablishing1stgenerationcitizens(butusingashortertimeperiodof35years,inlinewithemigrationtrends)wouldgiveanadditional16,415peopleintheUSwhohaveaparentborninIreland.
21.
Overallthenwithareasonabledegreeofconfidencewecouldestimatethattherearecurrentlyatleast3.
124millionIrishcitizensnormallyresidentintheUKorUSwhoarewhoarecitizensbyvirtueofbeingbornontheislandofIrelandorasaresultofaparent'sIrishcitizenship,wherethatcitizenshipisfrombeingbornontheislandofIreland.
EstimatednumbersofIrishcitizensintheRestoftheWorld22.
InEuropeandOECDcountrieswecanonlyreallyidentifyforeignbornpopulationsresidentinrespectiveMemberStatesandusingEurostat13andOECD14data.
Thisindicatesthatin2013therewereapproximately754,000IrishborncitizensresidentinOECDCountries.
TakingouttheknowndataonIrishborncitizensintheUKandUS11AsomewhatcrudeanalysisassumingthatthepopulationshaveremainedclosetotheirpresentnumbersandthennettingpopulationgrowthoverthisperiodusingIrish10yearaveragefertilityrate(15.
75)lessdeathrates(6.
37).
Thisisthennettedovera60yearperiod(inlinewithrecentemigrationpatternsfromthe1950's)inanattempttoaccountforpeaksandtroughsinemigration,higherhistoricalfertilityrates,andincreased1stgenerationpopulationgrowthasaresultof1(asopposedtoboth)parentsbeinganIrishcitizenfrombirth.
Overallthenthisfigureshouldbeconsideredaproxyfigureintheabsenceofmorerobustanalysis.
12ThisisanestimateusingquantitativeandqualitativedatagatheredbyIreland'sMissionsandIrishimmigrationcentresintheUnitedStates.
13Eurostat(2016)http://appsso.
eurostat.
ec.
europa.
eu/nui/show.
dodataset=migr_pop1ctz&lang=en14OECD(2014)http://www.
oecd.
org/els/mig/keystat.
htmthisleaves245,000citizens,roundedupto255,000toaccountforemigrationsince2013.
23.
ThefinalglobalfiguresthatneedtobeconsideredarefromIrishpopulationsintherestoftheworld,particularlyintheconcentratedpopulationsintheGulfStatesanddispersedacrossAfricaandSouthAmerica.
Thisisarguablytheleastrobustdatabutcanbedevelopedbymixtureofqualitative15andquantitative16datawhichindicatesthatthereareapproximately40,000IrishcitizensinAfrica,10,000intheGulfRegion,5,000inEastandSouthEastAsia(excludingOECDcountries),and2,000inCentralandSouthAmerica.
ThiswouldgiveatotalRestofWorldFigureof312,000.
24.
Duetocomplexitiesinmigrationflows,lackofrobustdataandtherelativenewnessofmanyoftheseIrishcommunities,itwouldbeverydifficulttoidentify1stgenerationnumbershoweverafigureof15%oftotalpopulationwouldbeaveryconservativeestimate(i.
e.
totalpopulationofapproximately360,000)CitizenshipthroughForeignBirthRegistration25.
Inadditionweknowthatthereare187,402entriessince1956ontheForeignBirthsRegisterheldbytheDepartmentofForeignAffairsandTrade17,whichistheofficialcountofcitizensbornabroadwhohaveclaimedcitizenshipthroughagrandparentborninIrelandorthroughaparentwhowasanIrishcitizenatthetimeoftheperson'sbirthbutwhowasnotborninIreland.
Applyingadeathrateof6.
3718per1,000ofpopulationperannumwewouldestimatethattherearecurrently115,77719citizensresidentabroadwhohavecitizenshipthroughForeignBirthsRegistration.
Thefiguresinthispaperdonotinclude"potentialcitizens"thatispeoplewhowouldbeentitledtoclaimcitizenship15Embassyestimatesandestimatesderivedfrompassportrenewalnumbers16UNMigrationStatistics(2015)http://www.
un.
org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.
shtml17February2017figure18CSO(2016)10yearaveragedeathrateforIreland,http://www.
cso.
ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.
aspxid=vsa02_vsa09_vsa1819ParticularlycrudeanalysisintheabsenceofanalysisofFBRdemographicsandyearofregistrationthroughhavingagrandparentborninIrelandbutwhohavenotactivatedthisentitlementbyapplyingforcitizenshipthroughtheFBRprocess.
2026.
Intotal,factoringalltheavailabledatasetsandanalysiswewouldestimatethatonaconservativebasis,thereare3.
601millionIrishcitizensresidentoutsidetheStatewhoarecitizensbyvirtueofbeingbornontheislandofIrelandorasaresultofaparent'sIrishcitizenship,wherethatcitizenshipisfrombeingbornontheislandofIreland,orwhohavecitizenshipthroughtheForeignBirthsRegistration(FBR)process.
27.
Inthiscontextitisalsoworthnotingthefiguresrelatingtopassportapplications,andforeignbirthregistrations:CategoryNumberOverallPassportFiguresTotalnumberofpassportsissuedbyPassportServicefrom2006-20166,994,211PassportFiguresbasedonwherepersonbornIrishpassportsissuedtocitizensborninIreland(from2006-2016)5,378,000IrishpassportsissuedtopeopleborninNorthernIreland2006-2016696,894NumberofcurrentpassportsissuedtocitizensbornoutsidetheislandofIreland634,052NumberofcurrentpassportsissuedtoadultcitizensbornoutsidetheislandofIreland512,554NumberofcurrentpassportsissuedtochildrenbornoutsidetheislandofIreland121,498Passportfiguresbasedoncitizenshipbydescent20ForthesakeofcompletenesshoweveritshouldbenotedthatastudybyAngliaRuskinUniversityestimatedthatthismaximumpotentialcitizenry,weretheytoclaim,couldbeashighas3.
4millionintheUKalone(BBC,(2016)http://www.
bbc.
com/news/magazine-37246769)PassportapplicationsreceivedfrompeoplebornabroadtoparentborninIreland(from2006-2016)559,783(Note:thesefigureswerefairlystaticataround50,000peryear,until2015:53,062;2016:67,914)PassportapplicationsreceivedfrompeoplewhoseentitlementisbasedonFBR(from2006-2016)126,690(Note:thesefigureswerefairlystaticataround11,000peryear,until2015:12,517;2016:14,492)TotalnumberofIrishpassportsissuedbyofficesoutsidetheStateinperiod2006–2016984,455Irishpassportsissuedtocitizensover18byofficesoutsidetheStateinperiod2006–2016789,112Irishpassportsissuedtochildrenunder18byofficesoutsidetheStateinperiod2006–2016195,343ForeignBirthRegistrationFiguresTotalnumberofpeoplesince1956whohavebeengrantedcitizenshipthroughForeignBirthsRegistration187,402NumberofpeoplegrantedcitizenshipthroughForeignBirthsRegistrationsincetheFBRsystemwasdigitisedinOctober201226,187NumberofpeoplegrantedcitizenshipthroughForeignBirthsRegistrationin20168,153IrishAbroadUnit20June2017
Itisimportanttorecallfromtheoutsetthattheoft-quotedfigureof70milliondoesnotpurporttobethenumberofIrishemigrants,abroadnorthenumberofIrishcitizensabroad.
RatheritisafigurethatcouldbeseenasrelatingbesttothereferenceinArticle2ofBunreachtnahireannwhichstatesthat"TheIrishnationcherishesitsspecialaffinitywithpeopleofIrishancestrylivingabroadwhoshareitsculturalidentityandheritage.
"2.
Thevastmajorityofthis70millionfigurearedescendantsofIrishemigrants,oftenthroughseveralgenerationsstartingwiththosewholeftIrelandaroundthetimeoftheFamine.
Thelargestgroupinthisfigureisthe36millionpeopleinAmericawhointhelastcensusself-identifiedas"Irish-American"or"Scots-Irish".
Thebalanceofthe70millionfigurewouldbemadeupoflargeIrishancestrypopulationsinBritain,Canada,AustraliaandNewZealandandsmallerIrishancestrypopulationsinContinentalEuropeandLatinAmerica.
3.
Intermsofactualcitizensabroad,itisestimatedthatthereareapproximately1.
47millioncitizensresidentoutsidetheState.
ThisfiguredoesnotincludethepopulationofNorthernIrelandandtheirdescendantsinBritain,whototal2.
121millionpeople.
ItshouldberecalledthatundertheGoodFridayAgreementpeopleinNorthernIrelandhavetherighttobeBritish,Irishorboth.
HistoricIrishEmigrationProfiles4.
HistoricallyIrelandhasoccupiedanunusualplaceinthewiderpatternofEuropeanemigration,withverylargenumbersofemigrantsrelativetothetotalpopulationofthecountry.
Therewasacontinuousdeclineinpopulationfrom8.
2millionpeoplein1841to4.
2millionin1961.
ThepeakyearsofemigrantoutflowwereintheimmediateaftermathoftheGreatFamineof1847-51.
Inthedecadesupto1921thevastmajority(>80%)ofemigrantsfromIrelandwenttoAmerica.
Post-1921duetopoliticalandeconomicchangestherewasshifttoBritainwhichintothe1960sremainedthedestinationofchoiceforover80%ofemigrants1,andremainedthedestinationforthelargestnumberofIrishemigrantsupuntilthe1990s.
2Irishemigrationisalsonotableforthenumberofwomenwhohaveemigrated–upuntilthe1980swomen'sratesofemigrationwereoftenhigherthanmen's.
5.
AstherearenoofficialrecordskeptoftheexactnumberorpurposeofpeopleleavingIreland,noranylegalrequirementforIrishcitizensabroadtoregisterwiththeIrishauthorities,estimateshavetobemadebothofthenumbersemigratingfromIreland,andofthenumberofIrishcitizenslivingoverseasataparticulartime.
Forlookingathistoricpatterns,censusdataisthemostusefultool,butitshouldbenotedthatthecensusfiguresprovidesabalanceofout-migrationandin-migrationwhichisgenerallyregardedasunderestimatingthetruesizeofmigrationflowsinbothdirections.
6.
AfterthefirstwaveofmassemigrationintheaftermathoftheFamine,thereweretwofurtherlargewavesofoutwardmovementofpeoplefromIrelandinthelate1950sandthelate1980s.
7.
Grossemigrationinthe1950suntiltheearly1960swasapproximately500,000.
3Theemigrationofthe1950swasprimarilyaconsequenceofthelossofmen'sandwomen'sworkinagricultureandagriculturalrelatedemployment.
Economicdevelopmenthadyettocatchwithaboomingpopulationandasresulttherewasamasswaveofyoungemigrantswholeftovertheperiod.
Thosewhocouldn'tfindemploymentinagricultureandlightmanufacturing/industrywereparticularlyhardhitandassuchareasofthewestcoastandsatellitetownsandvillagesaroundmajorurbancentreswherethemainsourceofemigrants.
Emigrantsofthisgenerationweremainlyofthesemi-skilledorunskilledeconomicgroups.
8.
Thiswaveabatedinthe1960swiththepublicationofTKWhitaker'splanforEconomicDevelopment,andtheGovernment'sProgrammeforEconomicExpansionandstemmedfurtherinthe70swhenIreland'snewEECmembershipcamewithparticulareconomicbenefits.
1AlanBarrett(1999)http://ftp.
iza.
org/dp97.
pdf2BronwenWalter(2002)3UCChttps://www.
ucc.
ie/en/emigre/history/9.
Grossemigrationinthe1980swasapproximately450,000.
ThevastmajoritywouldhavegonetoBritain(~65%)followedbytheUnitedStates(~25%)withtheremaindermostlygoingtomajorEuropeanstatesandotherAnglophonecountries.
Thisgroupwouldhavehad,forthefirsttime,arelativelylargepercentageofhighlyskilledand/oreducatedpeople,andhadagreatgeographicspreadthanpreviouswaves,intermsofwhereinIrelandemigrantsleftfrom.
EmigrationfromurbancentresinIrelandbecameanewphenomenon.
IrishStateInvolvementintheWelfareofEmigrants10.
In1937,10migrantworkersfromAchillIslanddiedasresultofafireintheirsleepingquartersisvillagecalledKirkintollichinScotland.
AnInter-departmentalCommitteeonSeasonalMigrationwasestablished,buttheirreportin1938arguedthattheIrishstateshouldnotgetinvolvedinthewelfareconcernsofIrishnationalsinBritain.
ThatwelfarerolewasthenlargelyplayedbytheCatholicChurch.
11.
In1968therewasashiftinGovernmentalthinkingunderMinisterforLabourPatrickHillery,whenitwasproposedthatlocalemploymentexchangeswouldprovideinformationaboutemploymentinBritain,thatmutualrecognitionofeducationalqualificationsbeagreed,andthatsomestatefundingbemadeavailableforthewelfareofemigrantsinBritain.
Intheearly1970s,thenMinisterforLabourJoeBrennansetuptheCommitteeonWelfareServicestosupportyoungpeoplewhowereleavingforEnglandwithlittleornopreparationormoney.
Thiscommitteeof15peoplemetintheDepartmentofLabourinDublinandwassupersededin1984bytheestablishmentoftheLondon-basedDíonCommitteebythenMinisterforLabourRuairíQuinnwhowasoftheviewthatacommitteeinDublinwasnotsufficienttoaddresstheneedsofvulnerableIrishemigrantsinBritain.
In2004,followingthereportoftheTaskForceonPolicyRegardingEmigrants,theGovernmentestablishedtheEmigrantSupportProgramme,tobemanagedbyadedicatedunit,theIrishAbroadUnit,whichwassetupintheDepartmentofForeignAffairs.
Post-200812.
Grossemigrationfrom2008toend-2015wasapproximately630,000.
ThisfigureisinflatedbytheexistenceforthefirsttimeofsignificantimmigrantpopulationsinIreland,particularlyfromEUaccessionstatesinEasternEurope,manyofwhommovedonfromIrelandduringtherecessiontofindworkelsewhere.
13.
Post-2008thereweretwoverydistinctcategoriesofIrishemigrantsandtheycanbegroupedbyage30-45and18-30.
ForthefirsttimeanoverwhelmingmajorityofemigrantsdidnotgotoBritainortheUnitedStates.
Significantnumbersdidgotothesedestinations(particularlyBritain)butmanywenttoAustralia,CanadaandtoEUcountries.
ForthefirsttimeasignificantproportionalsowenttonewdestinationssuchastheMiddleEastandAsia.
14.
Theoldergroupofemigrantswouldhavebeenofprimeworkingageduringtheso-calledCelticTigerera.
Aftertheeconomiccrashof2008someofthisgroupwouldhaveemigratedabroadwhichwasnotable,astheywereolderthanpreviousemigrantgenerations,andmanywouldhavebrought,orleftbehind,families.
ThisreflectsincreasesinglobalmobilityandconnectivitybutalsothedemandabroadforIrishworkers.
Asaresultthisemigrantgroupwouldforthefirsttimehavehadamajorityofpeoplethatwerehighlyskilledand/oreducated.
Indeedaround60%ofthosewholeftin2009wereinemployment28,67565,93489,43677,12820,00040,00060,00080,000100,000200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015EmigrationofIrishCitizens(Eurostat)15.
Amongtheyoungeremigrantcohortpost-2008anevenhigherproportionfocusedinAustralia,NewZealand,CanadaandcoreEUcountries.
Thisgroupwouldmainlyhavecomeintotheworkforceaftertheeconomiccrashof2008.
Theyareamongthemosthighlymobile,educatedandskilledgroupofemigrantsintheworld.
DuetobeingraisedintheinternetagethisgroupwouldalsobeespeciallyconnectedtoIrelandandwouldbeconsumersandcontributorstoIrishculture,mediaandportevenwhilestillabroad.
Thekeydifferentialbetweenthisgroupandtheolderemigrantsisthattheywouldnothavebeennearlyasestablished(career,familyetc…)whentheyleft.
EstablishingtheNumberofIrishCitizensResidentoutsidetheState16.
ThereisnolegalrequirementforIrishcitizensresidentoverseastoregisterwiththeIrishauthorities,norarethereformalexitproceduresatIrishportsandairportsrecordingallcitizensleavingtoliveabroad.
AssuchthereisnoauthoritativeexactfigureforthenumberofIrishcitizensresidentabroad.
Assuch,accuratelyestimatingthenumberofIrishcitizensabroadisadifficulttaskduetolackofsufficientaccesstoqualityandconsistentdatasetsbothathomeandabroad.
WiththenotableexceptionsoftheCSO,OECDandcensusdatafromaselectnumberofhigh-incomecountries,itisdifficulttogetanexactnumberonIrishcitizens,extrapolatepopulationsorindeedsometimecomparelikeforlike.
44e.
g.
Censusdataabroadisbasedondifferentlywordedquestions7.
621.
99.
816.
40510152025200820092010201120122013201420152016IrishEmigrationdestinations,bythousandsofemigrants(CSO)UnitedKingdomEU15excludingIrelandandUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesAustraliaCanadaOthercountries(23)17.
Inearly2017,IrishAbroadUnitanalysedthemostrelevantavailabledata,andwhileitisopentofurtherinterrogation,arrivedatafigureof3.
601millionIrishcitizensresidentoutsidetheStatewhoarecitizensbyvirtueofbeingbornontheislandofIrelandorasaresultofaparent'sIrishcitizenship,wherethatcitizenshipisfrombeingbornontheislandofIreland,orwhohavecitizenshipthroughtheForeignBirthsRegistration(FBR)process.
18.
ItshouldberecalledthatundertheGoodFridayAgreementpeopleinNorthernIrelandhavetherighttobeBritish,Irishorboth.
Thefiguresbelowarebasedonamaximalistapproachand,forthesakeofclarity,includesallpeoplebornontheislandofIrelandasbeingIrishcitizens5.
LocationDetailNumbersRobustnessofData(1-5)NorthernIrelandGoodFridayAgreement1,870,0005BritainBornintheState382,0005BritainBorninNorthernIreland251,6005Britain1stgenerationchildrenofpeopleborninState214,9893Britain1stgenerationchildrenofpeopleborninNorthernIreland141,6003USBornontheislandofIreland127,0005US1stgenerationchildrenofpeoplebornintheState71,4753USUndocumentedIrish50,0003US1stgenerationchildrenofundocumentedIrish16,4152OECD(ex.
UK&US)BorninState255,00045ChangesintroducedundertheIrishNationalityandCitizenshipAct2004arenotrelevantforthepurposesofthispaperRestofWorld(ex.
OECD)BorninState57,0002OECD&RestofWorld(ex.
UK&US)1stgenerationchildrenofpeoplebornintheState48,0002ForeignBirthsRegistrationLiving115,7772TOTAL3,600,856LargeBaselinePopulationsinUKandUS19.
ThreelargeandhighqualitydatasetsonIrishcitizensresidentoutsidethestatecanimmediatelybeidentified.
ThefirstdatasetisthepopulationofNorthernIrelandwhichstandsat1.
87million6.
TheseconddatasetisderivedfromtheUK's2015PopulationSurvey7whichindicatesthatare382,000peopleresidentintheUKwhowereborninthe"RepublicofIreland.
"Similarlythereareatleast215,000peopleborninNorthernIrelandresidentinEnglandandWales8withatleastafurther36,600residentinScotland9.
Inthefirstinstancethenwecanidentifyaquantifiable633,000IrishcitizensinBritainwhoarecitizensbasedonbeingbornontheislandofIreland.
Thethirddatasetisthe2011-2015AmericanCommunitySurvey5-YearEstimates10whichindicatethat127,000peopleresidentinAmericawereborninIreland.
(ThissurveydoesnotdisaggregatebetweenthoseborninNorthernIrelandandtheState).
Thesethreedatasetscombinetogiveusabaselineof2.
63millionIrishcitizens.
6NISRA,(2017)http://www.
nisra.
gov.
uk/population_clock/ClockText.
html7ONS,(2015)https://www.
ons.
gov.
uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/populationoftheunitedkingdombycountryofbirthandnationality8ONS,(2011)https://www.
nomisweb.
co.
uk/census/2011/ks204ew9CensusScotland(2011)http://www.
scotlandscensus.
gov.
uk/ods-web/standard-outputs.
html10USCensusData(2015)https://factfinder.
census.
gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.
xhtmlpid=ACS_15_5YR_B05006&prodType=tableBuildingonBaselinePopulationsintheUKandUS20.
TheUSandUKfiguresaboveonlycapturethenumbersborninIreland,andnotthoseoffirstgenerationIrishcitizensbornintheUSorUKtoaparentbornIreland(whoarecitizensbyvirtueofhavinganIrishbornparent).
Projectingthispotentialpopulationaccuratelyisdifficult.
Initialanalysis11indicatesthatthiswouldconservatively(i.
e.
atleast)addanother428,0651stgenerationcitizensinBritainandtheUS(286,465whohaveaparentbornintheStateand141,600whohaveaparentborninNorthernIreland).
ThiswouldneedtobecombinedwiththenumbersofundocumentedIrishcitizensinAmerica,whoarenotlikelytobeaccountedforinUSofficialfigures,whichisestimatedat50,00012.
Takingthesamemethodologicalapproachasaboveinestablishing1stgenerationcitizens(butusingashortertimeperiodof35years,inlinewithemigrationtrends)wouldgiveanadditional16,415peopleintheUSwhohaveaparentborninIreland.
21.
Overallthenwithareasonabledegreeofconfidencewecouldestimatethattherearecurrentlyatleast3.
124millionIrishcitizensnormallyresidentintheUKorUSwhoarewhoarecitizensbyvirtueofbeingbornontheislandofIrelandorasaresultofaparent'sIrishcitizenship,wherethatcitizenshipisfrombeingbornontheislandofIreland.
EstimatednumbersofIrishcitizensintheRestoftheWorld22.
InEuropeandOECDcountrieswecanonlyreallyidentifyforeignbornpopulationsresidentinrespectiveMemberStatesandusingEurostat13andOECD14data.
Thisindicatesthatin2013therewereapproximately754,000IrishborncitizensresidentinOECDCountries.
TakingouttheknowndataonIrishborncitizensintheUKandUS11AsomewhatcrudeanalysisassumingthatthepopulationshaveremainedclosetotheirpresentnumbersandthennettingpopulationgrowthoverthisperiodusingIrish10yearaveragefertilityrate(15.
75)lessdeathrates(6.
37).
Thisisthennettedovera60yearperiod(inlinewithrecentemigrationpatternsfromthe1950's)inanattempttoaccountforpeaksandtroughsinemigration,higherhistoricalfertilityrates,andincreased1stgenerationpopulationgrowthasaresultof1(asopposedtoboth)parentsbeinganIrishcitizenfrombirth.
Overallthenthisfigureshouldbeconsideredaproxyfigureintheabsenceofmorerobustanalysis.
12ThisisanestimateusingquantitativeandqualitativedatagatheredbyIreland'sMissionsandIrishimmigrationcentresintheUnitedStates.
13Eurostat(2016)http://appsso.
eurostat.
ec.
europa.
eu/nui/show.
dodataset=migr_pop1ctz&lang=en14OECD(2014)http://www.
oecd.
org/els/mig/keystat.
htmthisleaves245,000citizens,roundedupto255,000toaccountforemigrationsince2013.
23.
ThefinalglobalfiguresthatneedtobeconsideredarefromIrishpopulationsintherestoftheworld,particularlyintheconcentratedpopulationsintheGulfStatesanddispersedacrossAfricaandSouthAmerica.
Thisisarguablytheleastrobustdatabutcanbedevelopedbymixtureofqualitative15andquantitative16datawhichindicatesthatthereareapproximately40,000IrishcitizensinAfrica,10,000intheGulfRegion,5,000inEastandSouthEastAsia(excludingOECDcountries),and2,000inCentralandSouthAmerica.
ThiswouldgiveatotalRestofWorldFigureof312,000.
24.
Duetocomplexitiesinmigrationflows,lackofrobustdataandtherelativenewnessofmanyoftheseIrishcommunities,itwouldbeverydifficulttoidentify1stgenerationnumbershoweverafigureof15%oftotalpopulationwouldbeaveryconservativeestimate(i.
e.
totalpopulationofapproximately360,000)CitizenshipthroughForeignBirthRegistration25.
Inadditionweknowthatthereare187,402entriessince1956ontheForeignBirthsRegisterheldbytheDepartmentofForeignAffairsandTrade17,whichistheofficialcountofcitizensbornabroadwhohaveclaimedcitizenshipthroughagrandparentborninIrelandorthroughaparentwhowasanIrishcitizenatthetimeoftheperson'sbirthbutwhowasnotborninIreland.
Applyingadeathrateof6.
3718per1,000ofpopulationperannumwewouldestimatethattherearecurrently115,77719citizensresidentabroadwhohavecitizenshipthroughForeignBirthsRegistration.
Thefiguresinthispaperdonotinclude"potentialcitizens"thatispeoplewhowouldbeentitledtoclaimcitizenship15Embassyestimatesandestimatesderivedfrompassportrenewalnumbers16UNMigrationStatistics(2015)http://www.
un.
org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.
shtml17February2017figure18CSO(2016)10yearaveragedeathrateforIreland,http://www.
cso.
ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.
aspxid=vsa02_vsa09_vsa1819ParticularlycrudeanalysisintheabsenceofanalysisofFBRdemographicsandyearofregistrationthroughhavingagrandparentborninIrelandbutwhohavenotactivatedthisentitlementbyapplyingforcitizenshipthroughtheFBRprocess.
2026.
Intotal,factoringalltheavailabledatasetsandanalysiswewouldestimatethatonaconservativebasis,thereare3.
601millionIrishcitizensresidentoutsidetheStatewhoarecitizensbyvirtueofbeingbornontheislandofIrelandorasaresultofaparent'sIrishcitizenship,wherethatcitizenshipisfrombeingbornontheislandofIreland,orwhohavecitizenshipthroughtheForeignBirthsRegistration(FBR)process.
27.
Inthiscontextitisalsoworthnotingthefiguresrelatingtopassportapplications,andforeignbirthregistrations:CategoryNumberOverallPassportFiguresTotalnumberofpassportsissuedbyPassportServicefrom2006-20166,994,211PassportFiguresbasedonwherepersonbornIrishpassportsissuedtocitizensborninIreland(from2006-2016)5,378,000IrishpassportsissuedtopeopleborninNorthernIreland2006-2016696,894NumberofcurrentpassportsissuedtocitizensbornoutsidetheislandofIreland634,052NumberofcurrentpassportsissuedtoadultcitizensbornoutsidetheislandofIreland512,554NumberofcurrentpassportsissuedtochildrenbornoutsidetheislandofIreland121,498Passportfiguresbasedoncitizenshipbydescent20ForthesakeofcompletenesshoweveritshouldbenotedthatastudybyAngliaRuskinUniversityestimatedthatthismaximumpotentialcitizenry,weretheytoclaim,couldbeashighas3.
4millionintheUKalone(BBC,(2016)http://www.
bbc.
com/news/magazine-37246769)PassportapplicationsreceivedfrompeoplebornabroadtoparentborninIreland(from2006-2016)559,783(Note:thesefigureswerefairlystaticataround50,000peryear,until2015:53,062;2016:67,914)PassportapplicationsreceivedfrompeoplewhoseentitlementisbasedonFBR(from2006-2016)126,690(Note:thesefigureswerefairlystaticataround11,000peryear,until2015:12,517;2016:14,492)TotalnumberofIrishpassportsissuedbyofficesoutsidetheStateinperiod2006–2016984,455Irishpassportsissuedtocitizensover18byofficesoutsidetheStateinperiod2006–2016789,112Irishpassportsissuedtochildrenunder18byofficesoutsidetheStateinperiod2006–2016195,343ForeignBirthRegistrationFiguresTotalnumberofpeoplesince1956whohavebeengrantedcitizenshipthroughForeignBirthsRegistration187,402NumberofpeoplegrantedcitizenshipthroughForeignBirthsRegistrationsincetheFBRsystemwasdigitisedinOctober201226,187NumberofpeoplegrantedcitizenshipthroughForeignBirthsRegistrationin20168,153IrishAbroadUnit20June2017
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