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DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaChinaConsumerHotels/Leisure/GamingIndustryChinaMediaDate11February2016IndustryUpdateChina'sboxofficeisasredasitsLunarNewYearBoxofficeincreased72%yoyinthefirstthreedaysoftheChineseNewYearDeutscheBankAG/HongKongDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.
Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.
Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.
MCI(P)124/04/2015.
TallanZhouResearchAnalyst(+852)22036464tallan.
zhou@db.
comKarenTangResearchAnalyst(+852)22036141karen.
tang@db.
comToppicksWandaCinema(002739.
SZ),CNY84.
52BuySource:DeutscheBankCompaniesFeaturedWandaCinema(002739.
SZ),CNY84.
52Buy2014A2015E2016EP/E(x)–80.
746.
8EV/EBITDA(x)–50.
027.
7Price/book(x)0.
019.
812.
0EnlightMedia(300251.
SZ),CNY22.
75Hold2014A2015E2016EP/E(x)63.
274.
052.
6EV/EBITDA(x)43.
952.
136.
4Price/book(x)7.
65.
14.
8HuayiBrothers(300027.
SZ),CNY28.
10Hold2014A2015E2016EP/E(x)47.
447.
635.
0EV/EBITDA(x)31.
028.
221.
3Price/book(x)6.
53.
93.
4HuaceFilm&TV(300133.
SZ),CNY23.
44Buy2014A2015E2016EP/E(x)47.
154.
834.
8EV/EBITDA(x)38.
843.
827.
5Price/book(x)4.
86.
05.
1Source:DeutscheBankDuringthefirstthreedaysofthe2016ChineseNewYear(CNY),boxofficerevenueincreased72%yoytoRMB1.
6bnfromlastyear'sRMB953m.
Whileconsensusexpects37%growthinboxofficerevenuein2016(fromRMB44bnin2015toRMB60bnin2016),webelievetheCNYboxofficerevenuemayimplyapotentialbeatforthewholeyear.
TheChineseNewYearmoviemarketislargelydominatedbythreeblockbusterCNYmovies–Mermaid(美人鱼)(45%),TheManfromMacau3(澳门风云3)(26%),andTheMonkeyKing2(西游记之孙悟空三打白骨精)(23%).
Boxofficefromlower-tiercitiesissharpWhiletier-1citiesarestillstrongincontributingtoChina'sboxofficerevenues,weseethathalfofthetop10cinemasareinlower-tiercities.
Ifwelookatthelocationsofthetop20cinemas,theyareintownsandcitiesthatarelesswellheardof(Figure4).
Asmostmigrantworkershavereturnedtotheirhometowns,themovieconsumptionpowerisalsoconcentratedinthelower-tiercitiesduringtheCNY.
MoviesexperiencedemandduringCNYandaremass-marketentertainmentInadditiontodining,drinking,andmahjong,watchingamovieismust-doentertainmentforChinesepeopleduringtheCNY.
Thankstothesubsidiesfromonlineticketplatformstocultivatethemoviemarketinthepasttwoyears,watchingamovieisnowmass-marketentertainment.
WehavechannelcheckedthatmovieticketsduringtheCNYarepricedonaverageatRMB35-55,whichislargelyaffordableformostpeople.
Chineseaudience'stastemayformamarketdifferentfromHollywoodWebelievethatamovietailoredtofitthetastesofaChineseaudiencewillresultinahigherreturn;i.
e.
,thosestoriesorI.
P.
thataremoreon-the-groundandrelatetothedailylivesofChinesepeoplewilloutperform.
WebelievethethreeCNYmovieshavebeensmartintargetingthemass-marketaudience,whichexpectseitherfamiliarI.
P.
suchasMacau3andTheMonkeyKing2,orafilmtobebyawellknowndirector,suchasStephenChowwithMermaid.
Individualmoviereturnsmayvary,butcinemas'won't;wepickWandaCinemaThereturnonindividualmoviesinChinamayvaryas:1)itisaB2Cbusiness;and2)only30%ofboxofficerevenuewillbereceivedbythefilmmakers.
However,cinemaswillallultimatelybenefitfromthegrowingmoviemarket.
OurtoppickisstillWandaCinema(TPRMB115,ratingBuy,CPRMB84.
52).
DuringthefirstthreedaysofCNY,sixtosevenofthetop10theatreswereintheWandaCinemachain.
Furthermore,weexpectEnlightMedia(TPRMB27,ratingHold,CPRMB22.
75),whichwasoneoftheinvestors(40%)inMermaid,tobenefitfromthestrongperformanceofthefilm.
ThemoviegeneratedRMB744mofboxofficerevenueinthefirstthreedaysandhasalreadydoubleditsinvestmentofRMB300-400m.
ValuationandrisksWevalueWandaCinemaatRMB115(8.
3%WACCand4%tgr),andEnlightMediaatRMB27(8.
8%WACCand4%tgr).
Keydownsiderisksinclude:1)alackofhigh-qualitydomesticmovies;2)lower-than-expectedreturnsonfilmproduction;and3)increasingcompetitionfromonlinenewmedia.
Keyupsiderisksinclude:1)higher-than-expectedboxofficerevenues.
11February2016Hotels/Leisure/GamingChinaMediaPage2DeutscheBankAG/HongKongFigure1:Firstthreedaysboxoffice,2015vs.
2016CNY2015(RMBm)2016(RMBm)yoy%Day136763372%Day228951578%Day329748965%Total9531,63772%Source:DeutscheBank,Maoyan.
comFigure2:BlockbusterChinesemoviesduringChineseNewYear,2015/16MovieChineseName2016Mermaid美人鱼2D,3DTheManfromMacau3澳门风云32D,3DTheMonkeyKing2西游记之孙悟空三打白骨精2D,3D,IMAX2015DragonBlade天将雄师2D,3D,IMAXTheManfromMacau2澳门风云22D,3DZhongKui:SnowGirlandtheDarkCrystal钟馗伏魔:雪妖魔灵2D,3DWolfTotem狼图腾2D,3D,IMAXSource:DeutscheBankFigure3:BlockbustersduringChineseNewYear,2006-16MovieChineseNameBoxofficeduringChineseNewYear(RMBm)2006Fearless/LegendofaFighter霍元甲702007007:CasinoRoyale007皇家赌场302008CJ7/LongRiver7长江七号632009LookForaStar游龙戏凤432010Avatar阿凡达1102011All'sWell,EndsWell最强喜事802012SherlockHolmes:AGameofShadows大侦探福尔摩斯2662013JourneytotheWest:ConqueringtheDemons西游降魔篇5302014TheMonkeyKing西游记之大闹天宫6372015DragonBlade天将雄师4682016Mermaid+TheManfromMacau+TheMonkeyKing2美人鱼+澳门风云3+大西游记之孙悟空三打白骨精1,546Source:DeutscheBank,Maoyan.
com11February2016Hotels/Leisure/GamingChinaMediaDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage3Figure4:Top20boxofficegeneratingcinemasduringthefirstthreedaysofCNY,2016No.
8February9February10February1WenzhouWanda-Longwan温州万达国际影城(龙湾店)WenzhouWanda-Longwan温州万达国际影城(龙湾店)BeijingYaolaiChenglong-Wukesong北京耀莱成龙国际影城(五棵松店)2WenzhouWanda-Pingyang温州万达国际影城(平阳店)WenzhouWanda-Pingyang温州万达国际影城(平阳店)TaiyuanWanda-Longhu太原万达影城(龙湖店)3BeijingYaolaiChenglong-Wukesong北京耀莱成龙国际影城(五棵松店)PutianWanda莆田万达国际影城WenzhouWanda-Pingyang温州万达国际影城(平阳店)4TaiyuanWanda-Longhu太原万达影城(龙湖店)BeijingYaolaiChenglong-Wukesong北京耀莱成龙国际影城(五棵松店)ShenzhenOSGH深圳橙天嘉禾影城5ShenzhenChinaFilm-NanshanHappyValley深圳中影国际影城(南山欢乐海岸店)TaiyuanWanda-Longhu太原万达影城(龙湖店)ChangchunWanda-Ouya长春万达国际影城(欧亚卖场店)6HangzhouDena杭州德纳国际影城ShenzhenOSGH深圳橙天嘉禾影城WenzhouWanda-Longwan温州万达国际影城(龙湾店)7ShenzhenOSGH深圳橙天嘉禾影城ShanghaiWanda-Wujiaochang上海万达电影城(五角场店)ShanghaiWanda-Wujiaochang上海万达电影城(五角场店)8ShanghaiWanda-Wujiaochang上海万达电影城(五角场店)ChangchunWanda-Ouya长春万达国际影城(欧亚卖场店)GuangzhouFeiyang-Zhengjia广州飞扬影城(正佳店)9ChangchunWanda-Ouya长春万达国际影城(欧亚卖场店)HangzhouDena杭州德纳国际影城PutianWanda莆田万达国际影城10FuyangWanda阜阳万影城ShanghaiWanda-Baoshan上海万达电影城(宝山店)HangzhouDena杭州德纳国际影城11GuangzhouUME广州UME国际影城NingdeWanda宁德万达影城JiamusiWanda佳木斯万达影城12GuangzhouFeiyang-Tianhe广州飞扬影城(天河城店)ShenzhenChinaFilm-NanshanHappyValley深圳中影国际影城(南山欢乐海岸店)GuangzhouFeiyang-Lefeng广州飞扬影城(乐峰店)13LangfangWanda廊坊万达国际影城HarbinWanda-Central哈尔滨万达国际影城(中央店)QuanzhouWanda泉州万达国际影城(万达广场店)14PutianWanda莆田万达国际影城HarbinWanda-Haxi哈尔滨万达国际影城(哈西店)LangfangWanda廊坊万达国际影城15DongguanWanda-HuananMall东莞万达国际影城(华南Mall店)JiamusiWanda佳木斯万达影城HarbinWanda-Central哈尔滨万达国际影城(中央店)16GangzhouWanda-Baiyuan广州万达国际影城(白云万达广场店)DandongWanda-Jinshan丹东万达国际影城ShanghaiWanda-Baoshan上海万达电影城(宝山店)17ShanghaiWanda-Baoshan上海万达电影城(宝山店)ShanghaiWanda-Zhoupu上海万达电影城(周浦店)QuanzhouWanda-Jinjiang泉州万达国际影城(晋江万达广场店)18GuangzhouFeiyang-Lefeng广州飞扬影城(乐峰店)GuangzhouAllStar广州星汇电影城NanchangHuaying南昌华影国际影城19BeijingWanda-Tongzhou北京万达国际影城(通州万达店)GuangzhouFeiyang-Lefeng广州飞扬影城(乐峰店)ZhangzhouWanda漳州万达国际影城20QuanzhouWanda-Jinjiang泉州万达国际影城(晋江万达广场店)WuxiWanda无锡万达国际影城GuangzhouFeiyang-Tianhe广州飞扬影城(天河城店)Source:DeutscheBank,MAoyan.
com11February2016Hotels/Leisure/GamingChinaMediaPage4DeutscheBankAG/HongKongAppendix1ImportantDisclosuresAdditionalinformationavailableuponrequestDisclosurechecklistCompanyTickerRecentprice*DisclosureWandaCinema002739.
SZ84.
52(CNY)5Feb16NAEnlightMedia300251.
SZ22.
75(CNY)5Feb16NAHuayiBrothers300027.
SZ28.
10(CNY)5Feb16NAHuaceFilm&TV300133.
SZ23.
44(CNY)5Feb16NA*PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.
OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.
Fordisclosurespertainingtorecommendationsorestimatesmadeonsecuritiesotherthantheprimarysubjectofthisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttp://gm.
db.
com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.
eqsr.
Fordisclosurespertainingtorecommendationsorestimatesmadeonsecuritiesotherthantheprimarysubjectofthisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttp://gm.
db.
com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.
eqsrAnalystCertificationTheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheundersignedleadanalystaboutthesubjectissuersandthesecuritiesofthoseissuers.
Inaddition,theundersignedleadanalysthasnotandwillnotreceiveanycompensationforprovidingaspecificrecommendationorviewinthisreport.
TallanZhouHistoricalrecommendationsandtargetprice:WandaCinema(002739.
SZ)(asof2/5/2016)PreviousRecommendationsStrongBuyBuyMarketPerformUnderperformNotRatedSuspendedRatingCurrentRecommendationsBuyHoldSellNotRatedSuspendedRating*NewRecommendationStructureasofSeptember9,20021.
14/08/2015:UpgradetoHold,TargetPriceChangeCNY202.
003.
11/10/2015:Buy,TargetPriceChangeCNY101.
002.
02/09/2015:UpgradetoBuy,CNY202.
004.
02/12/2015:Buy,TargetPriceChangeCNY115.
0011February2016Hotels/Leisure/GamingChinaMediaDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage5Historicalrecommendationsandtargetprice:EnlightMedia(300251.
SZ)(asof2/5/2016)PreviousRecommendationsStrongBuyBuyMarketPerformUnderperformNotRatedSuspendedRatingCurrentRecommendationsBuyHoldSellNotRatedSuspendedRating*NewRecommendationStructureasofSeptember9,20021.
10/11/2015:UpgradetoHold,TargetPriceChangeCNY27.
00Historicalrecommendationsandtargetprice:HuayiBrothers(300027.
SZ)(asof2/5/2016)PreviousRecommendationsStrongBuyBuyMarketPerformUnderperformNotRatedSuspendedRatingCurrentRecommendationsBuyHoldSellNotRatedSuspendedRating*NewRecommendationStructureasofSeptember9,20021.
10/11/2015:UpgradetoHold,TargetPriceChangeCNY40.
0011February2016Hotels/Leisure/GamingChinaMediaPage6DeutscheBankAG/HongKongHistoricalrecommendationsandtargetprice:HuaceFilm&TV(300133.
SZ)(asof2/5/2016)PreviousRecommendationsStrongBuyBuyMarketPerformUnderperformNotRatedSuspendedRatingCurrentRecommendationsBuyHoldSellNotRatedSuspendedRating*NewRecommendationStructureasofSeptember9,20021.
10/11/2015:UpgradetoBuy,TargetPriceChangeCNY38.
00EquityratingkeyEquityratingdispersionandbankingrelationshipsBuy:Basedonacurrent12-monthviewoftotalshare-holderreturn(TSR=percentagechangeinsharepricefromcurrentpricetoprojectedtargetpricepluspro-jecteddividendyield),werecommendthatinvestorsbuythestock.
Sell:Basedonacurrent12-monthviewoftotalshare-holderreturn,werecommendthatinvestorssellthestockHold:Wetakeaneutralviewonthestock12-monthsoutand,basedonthistimehorizon,donotrecommendeitheraBuyorSell.
Notes:1.
Newlyissuedresearchrecommendationsandtargetpricesalwayssupersedepreviouslypublishedresearch.
2.
Ratingsdefinitionspriorto27January,2007were:Buy:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends)of10%ormoreovera12-monthperiodHold:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends)between-10%and10%overa12-monthperiodSell:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends)of-10%orworseovera12-monthperiod11February2016Hotels/Leisure/GamingChinaMediaDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage7RegulatoryDisclosures1.
ImportantAdditionalConflictDisclosuresAsidefromwithinthisreport,importantconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://gm.
db.
com/equitiesunderthe"DisclosuresLookup"and"Legal"tabs.
Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting.
2.
Short-TermTradeIdeasDeutscheBankequityresearchanalystssometimeshaveshorter-termtradeideas(knownasSOLARideas)thatareconsistentorinconsistentwithDeutscheBank'sexistinglongertermratings.
ThesetradeideascanbefoundattheSOLARlinkathttp://gm.
db.
com.
11February2016Hotels/Leisure/GamingChinaMediaPage8DeutscheBankAG/HongKongAdditionalInformationTheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively"DeutscheBank").
Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.
IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson.
DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.
Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.
OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.
DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.
Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologiesorotherwise.
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AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliates,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.
Opinions,estimatesandprojectionsconstitutethecurrentjudgmentoftheauthorasofthedateofthisreport.
TheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofDeutscheBankandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.
DeutscheBankhasnoobligationtoupdate,modifyoramendthisreportortootherwisenotifyarecipientthereofifanyopinion,forecastorestimatecontainedhereinchangesorsubsequentlybecomesinaccurate.
Thisreportisprovidedforinformationalpurposesonly.
Itisnotanofferorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellanyfinancialinstrumentsortoparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.
Targetpricesareinherentlyimpreciseandaproductoftheanalyst'sjudgment.
Thefinancialinstrumentsdiscussedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforallinvestorsandinvestorsmustmaketheirowninformedinvestmentdecisions.
Pricesandavailabilityoffinancialinstrumentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeandinvestmenttransactionscanleadtolossesasaresultofpricefluctuationsandotherfactors.
Ifafinancialinstrumentisdenominatedinacurrencyotherthananinvestor'scurrency,achangeinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffecttheinvestment.
Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureresults.
Unlessotherwiseindicated,pricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsession,andaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.
DataissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andinsomecases,otherparties.
Macroeconomicfluctuationsoftenaccountformostoftherisksassociatedwithexposurestoinstrumentsthatpromisetopayfixedorvariableinterestrates.
Foraninvestorwhoislongfixedrateinstruments(thusreceivingthesecashflows),increasesininterestratesnaturallyliftthediscountfactorsappliedtotheexpectedcashflowsandthuscausealoss.
Thelongerthematurityofacertaincashflowandthehigherthemoveinthediscountfactor,thehigherwillbetheloss.
Upsidesurprisesininflation,fiscalfundingneeds,andFXdepreciationratesareamongthemostcommonadversemacroeconomicshockstoreceivers.
Butcounterpartyexposure,issuercreditworthiness,clientsegmentation,regulation(includingchangesinassetsholdinglimitsfordifferenttypesofinvestors),changesintaxpolicies,currencyconvertibility(whichmayconstraincurrencyconversion,repatriationofprofitsand/ortheliquidationofpositions),andsettlementissuesrelatedtolocalclearinghousesarealsoimportantriskfactorstobeconsidered.
Thesensitivityoffixedincomeinstrumentstomacroeconomicshocksmaybemitigatedbyindexingthecontractedcashflowstoinflation,toFXdepreciation,ortospecifiedinterestrates–thesearecommoninemergingmarkets.
Itisimportanttonotethattheindexfixingsmay--byconstruction--lagormis-measuretheactualmoveintheunderlyingvariablestheyareintendedtotrack.
Thechoiceoftheproperfixing(ormetric)isparticularlyimportantinswapsmarkets,wherefloatingcouponrates(i.
e.
,couponsindexedtoatypicallyshort-datedinterestratereferenceindex)areexchangedforfixedcoupons.
ItisalsoimportanttoacknowledgethatfundinginacurrencythatdiffersfromthecurrencyinwhichcouponsaredenominatedcarriesFXrisk.
Naturally,optionsonswaps(swaptions)alsobeartheriskstypicaltooptionsinadditiontotherisksrelatedtoratesmovements.
11February2016Hotels/Leisure/GamingChinaMediaDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage9Derivativetransactionsinvolvenumerousrisksincluding,amongothers,market,counterpartydefaultandilliquidityrisk.
Theappropriatenessorotherwiseoftheseproductsforusebyinvestorsisdependentontheinvestors'owncircumstancesincludingtheirtaxposition,theirregulatoryenvironmentandthenatureoftheirotherassetsandliabilities,andassuch,investorsshouldtakeexpertlegalandfinancialadvicebeforeenteringintoanytransactionsimilartoorinspiredbythecontentsofthispublication.
Theriskoflossinfuturestradingandoptions,foreignordomestic,canbesubstantial.
Asaresultofthehighdegreeofleverageobtainableinfuturesandoptionstrading,lossesmaybeincurredthataregreaterthantheamountoffundsinitiallydeposited.
Tradinginoptionsinvolvesriskandisnotsuitableforallinvestors.
Priortobuyingorsellinganoptioninvestorsmustreviewthe"CharacteristicsandRisksofStandardizedOptions",athttp://www.
optionsclearing.
com/about/publications/character-risks.
jsp.
IfyouareunabletoaccessthewebsitepleasecontactyourDeutscheBankrepresentativeforacopyofthisimportantdocument.
Participantsinforeignexchangetransactionsmayincurrisksarisingfromseveralfactors,includingthefollowing:(i)exchangeratescanbevolatileandaresubjecttolargefluctuations;(ii)thevalueofcurrenciesmaybeaffectedbynumerousmarketfactors,includingworldandnationaleconomic,politicalandregulatoryevents,eventsinequityanddebtmarketsandchangesininterestrates;and(iii)currenciesmaybesubjecttodevaluationorgovernmentimposedexchangecontrolswhichcouldaffectthevalueofthecurrency.
InvestorsinsecuritiessuchasADRs,whosevaluesareaffectedbythecurrencyofanunderlyingsecurity,effectivelyassumecurrencyrisk.
Unlessgoverninglawprovidesotherwise,alltransactionsshouldbeexecutedthroughtheDeutscheBankentityintheinvestor'shomejurisdiction.
UnitedStates:Approvedand/ordistributedbyDeutscheBankSecuritiesIncorporated,amemberofFINRA,NFAandSIPC.
Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofDeutscheBankSecuritiesIncorporatedandthereforenotsubjecttoFINRAregulationsconcerningcommunicationswithsubjectcompanies,publicappearancesandsecuritiesheldbyanalysts.
Germany:Approvedand/ordistributedbyDeutscheBankAG,ajointstockcorporationwithlimitedliabilityincorporatedintheFederalRepublicofGermanywithitsprincipalofficeinFrankfurtamMain.
DeutscheBankAGisauthorizedunderGermanBankingLaw(competentauthority:EuropeanCentralBank)andissubjecttosupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBankandbyBaFin,Germany'sFederalFinancialSupervisoryAuthority.
UnitedKingdom:Approvedand/ordistributedbyDeutscheBankAGactingthroughitsLondonBranchatWinchesterHouse,1GreatWinchesterStreet,LondonEC2N2DB.
DeutscheBankAGintheUnitedKingdomisauthorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthorityandissubjecttolimitedregulationbythePrudentialRegulationAuthorityandFinancialConductAuthority.
Detailsabouttheextentofourauthorisationandregulationareavailableonrequest.
HongKong:DistributedbyDeutscheBankAG,HongKongBranch.
India:PreparedbyDeutscheEquitiesPrivateLtd,whichisregisteredbytheSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(SEBI)asastockbroker.
ResearchAnalystSEBIRegistrationNumberisINH000001741.
DEIPLmayhavereceivedadministrativewarningsfromtheSEBIforbreachesofIndianregulations.
Japan:Approvedand/ordistributedbyDeutscheSecuritiesInc.
(DSI).
Registrationnumber-RegisteredasafinancialinstrumentsdealerbytheHeadoftheKantoLocalFinanceBureau(Kinsho)No.
117.
Memberofassociations:JSDA,TypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociationandTheFinancialFuturesAssociationofJapan.
Commissionsandrisksinvolvedinstocktransactions-forstocktransactions,wechargestockcommissionsandconsumptiontaxbymultiplyingthetransactionamountbythecommissionrateagreedwitheachcustomer.
Stocktransactionscanleadtolossesasaresultofsharepricefluctuationsandotherfactors.
Transactionsinforeignstockscanleadtoadditionallossesstemmingfromforeignexchangefluctuations.
Wemayalsochargecommissionsandfeesforcertaincategoriesofinvestmentadvice,productsandservices.
Recommendedinvestmentstrategies,productsandservicescarrytheriskoflossestoprincipalandotherlossesasaresultofchangesinmarketand/oreconomictrends,and/orfluctuationsinmarketvalue.
Beforedecidingonthepurchaseoffinancialproductsand/orservices,customersshouldcarefullyreadtherelevantdisclosures,prospectusesandotherdocumentation.
"Moody's","Standard&Poor's",and"Fitch"mentionedinthisreportarenotregisteredcreditratingagenciesinJapanunlessJapanor"Nippon"isspecificallydesignatedinthenameoftheentity.
ReportsonJapaneselistedcompaniesnotwrittenbyanalystsofDSIarewrittenbyDeutscheBank11February2016Hotels/Leisure/GamingChinaMediaPage10DeutscheBankAG/HongKongGroup'sanalystswiththecoveragecompaniesspecifiedbyDSI.
SomeoftheforeignsecuritiesstatedonthisreportarenotdisclosedaccordingtotheFinancialInstrumentsandExchangeLawofJapan.
Korea:DistributedbyDeutscheSecuritiesKoreaCo.
SouthAfrica:DeutscheBankAGJohannesburgisincorporatedintheFederalRepublicofGermany(BranchRegisterNumberinSouthAfrica:1998/003298/10).
Singapore:byDeutscheBankAG,SingaporeBranchorDeutscheSecuritiesAsiaLimited,SingaporeBranch(OneRafflesQuay#18-00SouthTowerSingapore048583,+6564238001),whichmaybecontactedinrespectofanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisreport.
WherethisreportisissuedorpromulgatedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanaccreditedinvestor,expertinvestororinstitutionalinvestor(asdefinedintheapplicableSingaporelawsandregulations),theyacceptlegalresponsibilitytosuchpersonforitscontents.
Qatar:DeutscheBankAGintheQatarFinancialCentre(registeredno.
00032)isregulatedbytheQatarFinancialCentreRegulatoryAuthority.
DeutscheBankAG-QFCBranchmayonlyundertakethefinancialservicesactivitiesthatfallwithinthescopeofitsexistingQFCRAlicense.
PrincipalplaceofbusinessintheQFC:QatarFinancialCentre,Tower,WestBay,Level5,POBox14928,Doha,Qatar.
ThisinformationhasbeendistributedbyDeutscheBankAG.
RelatedfinancialproductsorservicesareonlyavailabletoBusinessCustomers,asdefinedbytheQatarFinancialCentreRegulatoryAuthority.
Russia:Thisinformation,interpretationandopinionssubmittedhereinarenotinthecontextof,anddonotconstitute,anyappraisalorevaluationactivityrequiringalicenseintheRussianFederation.
KingdomofSaudiArabia:DeutscheSecuritiesSaudiArabiaLLCCompany,(registeredno.
07073-37)isregulatedbytheCapitalMarketAuthority.
DeutscheSecuritiesSaudiArabiamayonlyundertakethefinancialservicesactivitiesthatfallwithinthescopeofitsexistingCMAlicense.
PrincipalplaceofbusinessinSaudiArabia:KingFahadRoad,AlOlayaDistrict,P.
O.
Box301809,FaisaliahTower-17thFloor,11372Riyadh,SaudiArabia.
UnitedArabEmirates:DeutscheBankAGintheDubaiInternationalFinancialCentre(registeredno.
00045)isregulatedbytheDubaiFinancialServicesAuthority.
DeutscheBankAG-DIFCBranchmayonlyundertakethefinancialservicesactivitiesthatfallwithinthescopeofitsexistingDFSAlicense.
PrincipalplaceofbusinessintheDIFC:DubaiInternationalFinancialCentre,TheGateVillage,Building5,POBox504902,Dubai,U.
A.
E.
ThisinformationhasbeendistributedbyDeutscheBankAG.
RelatedfinancialproductsorservicesareonlyavailabletoProfessionalClients,asdefinedbytheDubaiFinancialServicesAuthority.
Australia:RetailclientsshouldobtainacopyofaProductDisclosureStatement(PDS)relatingtoanyfinancialproductreferredtointhisreportandconsiderthePDSbeforemakinganydecisionaboutwhethertoacquiretheproduct.
PleaserefertoAustralianspecificresearchdisclosuresandrelatedinformationathttps://australia.
db.
com/australia/content/research-information.
htmlAustraliaandNewZealand:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor"wholesaleclients"withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsActandNewZealandFinancialAdvisorsActrespectively.
Additionalinformationrelativetosecurities,otherfinancialproductsorissuersdiscussedinthisreportisavailableuponrequest.
Thisreportmaynotbereproduced,distributedorpublishedbyanypersonforanypurposewithoutDeutscheBank'spriorwrittenconsent.
Pleasecitesourcewhenquoting.
Copyright2016DeutscheBankAGDavidFolkerts-LandauChiefEconomistandGlobalHeadofResearchRajHindochaGlobalChiefOperatingOfficerResearchMarcelCassardGlobalHeadFICCResearch&GlobalMacroEconomicsStevePollardGlobalHeadEquityResearchMichaelSpencerRegionalHeadAsiaPacificResearchRalfHoffmannRegionalHeadDeutscheBankResearch,GermanyAndreasNeubauerRegionalHeadEquityResearch,GermanyInternationallocationsDeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankPlaceLevel16CornerofHunter&PhillipStreetsSydney,NSW2000AustraliaTel:(61)282581234DeutscheBankAGGroeGallusstrae10-1460272FrankfurtamMainGermanyTel:(49)6991000DeutscheBankAGFilialeHongkongInternationalCommerceCentre,1AustinRoadWest,Kowloon,HongKongTel:(852)22038888DeutscheSecuritiesInc.
2-11-1NagatachoSannoParkTowerChiyoda-ku,Tokyo100-6171JapanTel:(81)351566770DeutscheBankAGLondon1GreatWinchesterStreetLondonEC2N2EQUnitedKingdomTel:(44)2075458000DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.
60WallStreetNewYork,NY10005UnitedStatesofAmericaTel:(1)2122502500